RGNX Regenxbio Inc
$8.03 · −0.74% vs $8.09 close · scored 14:20 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 57/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 15.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 57/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.7 composite┆ +7.6 yesterday (+15.1) −35.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
57 / 100 · top 45% today
1,451 contracts · quality 58 · stability 0.73
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+10.0 pts
843 calls · 58.1% 608 puts
bias +16.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.7 pts
2,524 call OI · 66.7% 1,262 put OI
bias +33.3 × 0.38
Equals
+22.7
44% of the score comes from today’s volume, 56% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −9.71% · tape +38.3 · corr 0.16
● peak +74 ▼ low −59.4 ◆ −117.8 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $8 $7 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 9.71% while the tape has firmed 38.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 58 · 1,451 contracts
note Jumpy 0.73 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RGNX’s tape by 1 day (r=0.20, n=44)
against Our record on RGNX is poor 24% hit rate on 637 closed calls · payoff 0.74×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $8.03 highlighted. The $10 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,433).
05 Our record on RGNX Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$8.03 → $8.03
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 296 of these 637 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.193
52w $5.46–$16.19 IV rank —
Ask about RGNX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +74 to +23 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +58.5 on 2 Oct, then fell to −59.4 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $7.40 to $7.43. It’s at +22.7 now.+10.0 from volume and +12.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:20 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our RGNX record what it is? What’s the $10 wall?
What our data projects
−0.20 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#404 of 635 · helped by last day's move, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $10 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Regenxbio Inc · Biotechnology
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.7 ┆ +7.6 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +23
+10.0 volume · 58% calls+12.7 OI · 67% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −117.8 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $8 $7 Price −9.71%, tape +38.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 58 · 1,451 contracts
note Jumpy 0.73 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RGNX’s tape by 1 day (r=0.20, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+10.0 pts
843 calls · 608 puts · bias +16.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.7 pts
2,524 call OI · 1,262 put OI · bias +33.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −9.71% · tape +38.3 · corr 0.16
● peak +74 ▼ low −59.4 ◆ −117.8 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $8 $7 Over 30 days, price has fallen 9.71% while the tape has firmed 38.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
24% hit rate · 637 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$8.03 → $8.03
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.09 → $8.03
−0.74% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $10 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about RGNX
Why did the score drop from +74 to +23 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +58.5 on 2 Oct, then fell to −59.4 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $7.40 to $7.43. It’s at +22.7 now.+10.0 from volume and +12.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:20 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our RGNX record what it is? What’s the $10 wall?