SAIC Science Applications International Corp
$135.59 · +6.84% vs $126.90 close · scored 19:47 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 58/100
What changed
Composite weakened 4.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 58/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.3 composite┆ −4.9 yesterday (−4.4) −64.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
58 / 100 · top 37% today
245 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.73
neutral · +0.45% · n=11,074
What traded today · weight 62%
+0.8 pts
124 calls · 50.6% 121 puts
bias +1.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−10.0 pts
594 call OI · 36.8% 1,021 put OI
bias −26.4 × 0.38
Equals
−9.3
7% of the score comes from today’s volume, 93% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.51% · tape +50.3 · corr 0.00
▼ low −68.8 ◆ +114.5 in a day ● peak +56 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $133 $125 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.51% while the tape has firmed 50.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (63th pct) · quality 79 · 245 contracts
note Jumpy 0.73 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.45% avg, n=11,074
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SAIC’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=41)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SAIC is poor 15% hit rate on 337 closed calls · payoff 1.02×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $135.59 highlighted. The $135 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 633). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SAIC Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$135.59 → $135.59
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 277 of these 337 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report 31 Aug BMO
P/E 13.81 · fwd 11.54 Beta 0.288
52w $81.08–$142.66 IV rank —
Ask about SAIC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +55 to −9 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +55.6 on 2 Oct, then fell to −32.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $126.30 to $125.26. It’s at −9.3 now.+0.8 from volume and −10.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 19:47 method · 62/38
Compare with RGP Why is our SAIC record what it is? What’s the $135 wall?
What our data projects
−0.29 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#637 of 799 · helped by quality, tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $135 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Science Applications International Corp · Professional Services
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.3 ┆ −4.9 yday evidence
neutral · +0.45% · n=11,074
Why it’s −9
+0.8 volume · 51% calls−10.0 OI · 37% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +114.5 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $133 $125 Price −0.51%, tape +50.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (63th pct) · quality 79 · 245 contracts
note Jumpy 0.73 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.45% avg, n=11,074
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SAIC’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=41)
What traded today · 62%
+0.8 pts
124 calls · 121 puts · bias +1.2
What’s on the books · 38%
−10.0 pts
594 call OI · 1,021 put OI · bias −26.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.51% · tape +50.3 · corr 0.00
▼ low −68.8 ◆ +114.5 in a day ● peak +56 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $133 $125 Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.51% while the tape has firmed 50.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
15% hit rate · 337 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$135.59 → $135.59
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$125.26 → $125.26
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $135 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SAIC
Why did the score drop from +55 to −9 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +55.6 on 2 Oct, then fell to −32.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $126.30 to $125.26. It’s at −9.3 now.+0.8 from volume and −10.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 19:47 method · 62/38
Compare with RGP Why is our SAIC record what it is? What’s the $135 wall?