SBAC SBA Communications Corp
$170.01 · −5.57% vs $180.04 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 71/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 12.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 71/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+45.2 composite┆ +33.1 yesterday (+12.1) −39.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
71 / 100 · top 13% today
4,922 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.72
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+23.1 pts
3,379 calls · 68.7% 1,543 puts
bias +37.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+22.1 pts
7,263 call OI · 79.1% 1,923 put OI
bias +58.1 × 0.38
Equals
+45.2
51% of the score comes from today’s volume, 49% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.72% · tape +58.7 · corr -0.43
▼ low −61.5 ◆ +129.1 in a day ● peak +85 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $192 $158 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.72% while the tape has firmed 58.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 84 · 4,922 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SBAC’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.31, n=45)
against Our record on SBAC is poor 26% hit rate on 286 closed calls · payoff 1.19×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $170.01 highlighted. The $185 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,518).
05 Our record on SBAC Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $170.01
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$180.04 → $170.01
−5.57% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $180.04
+5.90% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $180.04
+5.90% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 177 of these 286 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 17.88 · fwd 21.42 Beta 1.007
52w $156.60–$224.46 IV rank —
Ask about SBAC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +85 to +45 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +84.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to +45.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $158.49 to $158.49. It’s at +45.2 now.+23.1 from volume and +22.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our SBAC record what it is? What’s the $185 wall?
What our data projects
+0.19 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#169 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $185 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
SBA Communications Corp · Real Estate
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+45.2 ┆ +33.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +45
+23.1 volume · 69% calls+22.1 OI · 79% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +129.1 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $192 $158 Price −3.72%, tape +58.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 84 · 4,922 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SBAC’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.31, n=45)
What traded today · 62%
+23.1 pts
3,379 calls · 1,543 puts · bias +37.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+22.1 pts
7,263 call OI · 1,923 put OI · bias +58.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.72% · tape +58.7 · corr -0.43
▼ low −61.5 ◆ +129.1 in a day ● peak +85 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $192 $158 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.72% while the tape has firmed 58.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
26% hit rate · 286 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $170.01
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$180.04 → $170.01
−5.57% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $180.04
+5.90% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$170.01 → $180.04
+5.90% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $185 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SBAC
Why did the score drop from +85 to +45 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +84.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to +45.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $158.49 to $158.49. It’s at +45.2 now.+23.1 from volume and +22.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our SBAC record what it is? What’s the $185 wall?