SFD SFD
$18.48 · scored 08:07 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 29/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 29/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−49.7 composite
Evidence
29 / 100 · top 96% today
3 contracts · quality 25 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.73% · n=18,463
What traded today · weight 62%
−62.0 pts
0 calls · 0.0% 3 puts
bias −100.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.3 pts
1,340 call OI · 66.1% 686 put OI
bias +32.3 × 0.38
Equals
−49.7
83% of the score comes from today’s volume, 17% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring SFD today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 29 (4th pct) · quality 25 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.73% avg, n=18,463
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on SFD
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $18.48 highlighted. The $20 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,330). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
13 Oct · 4h
$18.48 → $18.48
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
SFD
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−49.7 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.73% · n=18,463
Why it’s −50
−62.0 volume · 0% calls+12.3 OI · 66% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 29 (4th pct) · quality 25 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.73% avg, n=18,463
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on SFD
What traded today · 62%
−62.0 pts
0 calls · 3 puts · bias −100.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.3 pts
1,340 call OI · 686 put OI · bias +32.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
13 Oct · 4h
$18.48 → $18.48
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $20 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SFD
Not enough tape history on SFD for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our SFD record what it is? What’s the $20 wall?