SHOP Shopify Inc
$151.76 · +0.00% vs $151.76 close · scored 08:47 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 74/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.1 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
74 / 100 · top 9% today
35,790 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.9 pts
21,608 calls · 60.4% 14,182 puts
bias +20.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.2 pts
108,616 call OI · 51.6% 101,710 put OI
bias +3.3 × 0.38
Equals
+14.1
91% of the score comes from today’s volume, 9% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.60% · tape −11.7 · corr -0.19
▼ low −21.9 ● peak +64 ◆ −48.5 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $154 $127 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 4.60% while the tape has faded 11.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 82 · 35,790 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
pass Tape has led price tape has led SHOP’s price by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SHOP is poor 32% hit rate on 326 closed calls · payoff 1.33×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $151.76. The $110 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 29,592). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SHOP Proof 2 Oct · 4h
$151.76 → $151.76
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$149.12 → $149.12
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$149.70 → $149.70
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$151.66 → $151.66
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 156 of these 326 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 96.16 · fwd 58.04 Beta 2.697
52w $94.00–$182.19 IV rank —
Ask about SHOP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +30 to +14 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +30.2 on 1 Oct, then fell to +14.1 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $148.30 to $149.12. It’s at +14.1 now.+12.9 from volume and +1.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 08:47 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SHOP record what it is? What’s the $110 wall?
What our data projects
+0.48 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#67 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $110 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Shopify Inc · Technology
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.1 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +14
+12.9 volume · 60% calls+1.2 OI · 52% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −48.5 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $154 $127 Price +4.60%, tape −11.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 82 · 35,790 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+12.9 pts
21,608 calls · 14,182 puts · bias +20.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.2 pts
108,616 call OI · 101,710 put OI · bias +3.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.60% · tape −11.7 · corr -0.19
▼ low −21.9 ● peak +64 ◆ −48.5 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $154 $127 Over 30 days, price has risen 4.60% while the tape has faded 11.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
32% hit rate · 326 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$151.76 → $151.76
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$149.12 → $149.12
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$149.70 → $149.70
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$151.66 → $151.66
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $110 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SHOP
Why did the score drop from +30 to +14 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +30.2 on 1 Oct, then fell to +14.1 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $148.30 to $149.12. It’s at +14.1 now.+12.9 from volume and +1.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 08:47 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SHOP record what it is? What’s the $110 wall?