SMTC Semtech Corp
$187.49 · +0.00% vs $187.49 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 62/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+8.0 composite┆ +8.0 yesterday (+0.0) −47.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 32% today
1,727 contracts · quality 87 · stability 0.87
neutral · +0.40% · n=12,401
What traded today · weight 62%
−7.2 pts
763 calls · 44.2% 964 puts
bias −11.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.2 pts
20,138 call OI · 70.0% 8,628 put OI
bias +40.0 × 0.38
Equals
+8.0
32% of the score comes from today’s volume, 68% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +15.98% · tape −46.9 · corr 0.17
● peak +67 ◆ −55.7 in a day ▼ low −6.0 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $195 $131 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 15.98% while the tape has faded 46.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 87 · 1,727 contracts
pass Stable 0.87 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 61
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.40% avg, n=12,401
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SMTC’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.25, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on SMTC is mixed 37% hit rate on 296 closed calls · payoff 2.88×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $187.49 highlighted. The $220 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,351). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SMTC Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 155 of these 296 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 53.86 · fwd 34.65 Beta 2.477
52w $60.28–$201.99 IV rank —
Ask about SMTC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +55 to +8 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +55.0 on 6 Oct, then fell to +5.6 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $194.95 to $194.95. It’s at +8.0 now.−7.2 from volume and +15.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our SMTC record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?
What our data projects
+0.61 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#44 of 724 · helped by quality, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Semtech Corp · Semiconductors
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+8.0 ┆ +8.0 yday evidence
neutral · +0.40% · n=12,401
Why it’s +8
−7.2 volume · 44% calls+15.2 OI · 70% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −55.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $195 $131 Price +15.98%, tape −46.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 87 · 1,727 contracts
pass Stable 0.87 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 61
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.40% avg, n=12,401
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SMTC’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.25, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
−7.2 pts
763 calls · 964 puts · bias −11.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.2 pts
20,138 call OI · 8,628 put OI · bias +40.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +15.98% · tape −46.9 · corr 0.17
● peak +67 ◆ −55.7 in a day ▼ low −6.0 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $195 $131 Over 30 days, price has risen 15.98% while the tape has faded 46.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
37% hit rate · 296 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.49 → $187.49
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SMTC
Why did the score drop from +55 to +8 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +55.0 on 6 Oct, then fell to +5.6 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $194.95 to $194.95. It’s at +8.0 now.−7.2 from volume and +15.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our SMTC record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?