SPG Simon Property Group Inc
$201.74 · +0.39% vs $200.95 close · scored 00:52 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 67/100
What changed
Composite weakened 2.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.3 composite┆ +17.2 yesterday (−2.0) −2.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
764 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.83
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.2 pts
457 calls · 59.8% 307 puts
bias +19.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+3.1 pts
8,238 call OI · 54.0% 7,004 put OI
bias +8.1 × 0.38
Equals
+15.3
80% of the score comes from today’s volume, 20% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.68% · tape −43.9 · corr -0.21
● peak +59 ▼ low −49.5 ◆ +98.3 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $217 $201 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.68% while the tape has faded 43.9 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 85 · 764 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
against Our record on SPG is poor 13% hit rate on 1969 closed calls · payoff 0.76×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $201.74 highlighted. The $210 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,870).
13%
hit rate · 1969 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$201.74 → $201.74
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1404 of these 1969 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 13.93 · fwd 30.10 Beta 1.332
52w $172.19–$238.50 IV rank —
Ask about SPG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −49 to +15 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −48.8 on 30 Sep, then rose to +4.3 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $210.20 to $201.00. It’s at +15.3 now.+12.2 from volume and +3.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 00:52 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our SPG record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?
What our data projects
−0.23 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#434 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Simon Property Group Inc · Real Estate
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.3 ┆ +17.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +15
+12.2 volume · 60% calls+3.1 OI · 54% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +98.3 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $217 $201 Price −3.68%, tape −43.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 85 · 764 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+12.2 pts
457 calls · 307 puts · bias +19.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+3.1 pts
8,238 call OI · 7,004 put OI · bias +8.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.68% · tape −43.9 · corr -0.21
● peak +59 ▼ low −49.5 ◆ +98.3 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $217 $201 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.68% while the tape has faded 43.9 points. They agree.
13% hit rate · 1969 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$201.74 → $201.74
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$200.95 → $200.95
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SPG
Why did the score rise from −49 to +15 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −48.8 on 30 Sep, then rose to +4.3 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $210.20 to $201.00. It’s at +15.3 now.+12.2 from volume and +3.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 00:52 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our SPG record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?