TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
$117.10 · +0.00% vs $117.10 close · scored 11:37 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 62/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−1.1 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 32% today
383 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
neutral · +0.40% · n=12,401
What traded today · weight 62%
+1.8 pts
197 calls · 51.4% 186 puts
bias +2.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.9 pts
35,769 call OI · 46.2% 41,636 put OI
bias −7.6 × 0.38
Equals
−1.1
38% of the score comes from today’s volume, 62% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.60% · tape +33.7 · corr 0.01
● peak +32 ◆ +55.7 in a day ▼ low −59.8 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-11 $124 $117 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.60% while the tape has firmed 33.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 77 · 383 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.40% avg, n=12,401
pass Tape has led price tape has led TD’s price by 1 day (r=-0.33, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on TD is poor 17% hit rate on 260 closed calls · payoff 0.65×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $117.10. The $130 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,688).
3 Oct · 4h
$117.88 → $117.88
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$117.61 → $117.61
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$117.61 → $117.61
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$117.66 → $117.66
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 161 of these 260 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 17.47 · fwd 16.61 Beta 0.709
52w $109.50–$175.33 IV rank —
Ask about TD answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s −1.1?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of −1.1 across the last 8 sessions.+1.8 from volume and −2.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 11:37 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our TD record what it is? What’s the $130 wall?
What our data projects
−0.08 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#370 of 724 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $130 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Toronto-Dominion Bank · Banking
Neutral, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−1.1 evidence
neutral · +0.40% · n=12,401
Why it’s −1
+1.8 volume · 51% calls−2.9 OI · 46% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +55.7 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-11 $124 $117 Price −3.60%, tape +33.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 77 · 383 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.40% avg, n=12,401
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+1.8 pts
197 calls · 186 puts · bias +2.9
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.9 pts
35,769 call OI · 41,636 put OI · bias −7.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.60% · tape +33.7 · corr 0.01
● peak +32 ◆ +55.7 in a day ▼ low −59.8 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-11 $124 $117 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.60% while the tape has firmed 33.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
17% hit rate · 260 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$117.88 → $117.88
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$117.61 → $117.61
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$117.61 → $117.61
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$117.66 → $117.66
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $130 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about TD
What is behind today’s −1.1?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of −1.1 across the last 8 sessions.+1.8 from volume and −2.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 11:37 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our TD record what it is? What’s the $130 wall?