UPS United Parcel Service Inc
$94.13 · −0.01% vs $94.14 close · scored 14:29 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 66/100
What changed
Composite weakened 38.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−4.8 composite┆ +33.3 yesterday (−38.0) −17.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
7,128 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.82
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
What traded today · weight 62%
−4.7 pts
3,292 calls · 46.2% 3,836 puts
bias −7.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+0.0 pts
32,381 call OI · 50.0% 32,427 put OI
bias −0.1 × 0.38
Equals
−4.8
99% of the score comes from today’s volume, 1% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.29% · tape −8.8 · corr 0.11
● peak +38 ◆ −19.7 in a day ▼ low −5.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $94 $93 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.29% while the tape has faded 8.8 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 89 · 7,128 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led UPS’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.45, n=45)
against Our record on UPS is poor 18% hit rate on 309 closed calls · payoff 0.69×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $94.13 highlighted. The $90 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 13,603). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 146 of these 309 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 17.30 · fwd 12.24 Beta 0.987
52w $82.00–$122.41 IV rank —
Ask about UPS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +13 to −5 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.2 on 7 Oct, then fell to −5.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $93.11 to $93.11. It’s at −4.8 now.−4.7 from volume and +0.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 14:29 method · 62/38
Compare with FDX Why is our UPS record what it is? What’s the $90 wall?
What our data projects
+0.06 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#234 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $90 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
United Parcel Service Inc · Logistics & Transportation
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−4.8 ┆ +33.3 yday evidence
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
Why it’s −5
−4.7 volume · 46% calls+0.0 OI · 50% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −19.7 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $94 $93 Price −5.29%, tape −8.8 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 89 · 7,128 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led UPS’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.45, n=45)
What traded today · 62%
−4.7 pts
3,292 calls · 3,836 puts · bias −7.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+0.0 pts
32,381 call OI · 32,427 put OI · bias −0.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.29% · tape −8.8 · corr 0.11
● peak +38 ◆ −19.7 in a day ▼ low −5.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $94 $93 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.29% while the tape has faded 8.8 points. They agree.
18% hit rate · 309 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$94.13 → $94.13
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $90 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about UPS
Why did the score drop from +13 to −5 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.2 on 7 Oct, then fell to −5.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $93.11 to $93.11. It’s at −4.8 now.−4.7 from volume and +0.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 14:29 method · 62/38
Compare with FDX Why is our UPS record what it is? What’s the $90 wall?