VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$502.70 · −0.16% vs $503.50 close · scored 20:02 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 50/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 50/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+3.1 composite+13.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
50 / 100 · top 62% today
2,094 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
What traded today · weight 62%
+5.2 pts
1,134 calls · 54.2% 960 puts
bias +8.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.0 pts
5,434 call OI · 47.3% 6,044 put OI
bias −5.3 × 0.38
Equals
+3.1
72% of the score comes from today’s volume, 28% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.95% · tape +8.9 · corr -0.01
◆ −59.8 in a day ● peak +41 ▼ low −42.9 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $558 $503 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.95% while the tape has firmed 8.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 50 (38th pct) · quality 77 · 2,094 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 92
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on VRTX is poor 20% hit rate on 246 closed calls · payoff 0.48×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $502.70 highlighted. The $500 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,487). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on VRTX Proof 6 Oct · 4h
$502.70 → $502.70
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$504.73 → $504.73
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$511.00 → $511.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$506.74 → $506.74
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 124 of these 246 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 29.79 · fwd 25.19 Beta 0.282
52w $400.74–$560.25 IV rank —
Ask about VRTX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −28 to +3 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −28.2 on 30 Sep, then rose to +8.9 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $546.12 to $522.81. It’s at +3.1 now.+5.2 from volume and −2.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 20:02 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our VRTX record what it is? What’s the $500 wall?
What our data projects
−0.31 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#493 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $500 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc · Biotechnology
Neutral, moderately evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+3.1 evidence
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
Why it’s +3
+5.2 volume · 54% calls−2.0 OI · 47% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −59.8 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $558 $503 Price −7.95%, tape +8.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 50 (38th pct) · quality 77 · 2,094 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 92
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+5.2 pts
1,134 calls · 960 puts · bias +8.3
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.0 pts
5,434 call OI · 6,044 put OI · bias −5.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.95% · tape +8.9 · corr -0.01
◆ −59.8 in a day ● peak +41 ▼ low −42.9 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $558 $503 Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.95% while the tape has firmed 8.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
20% hit rate · 246 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$502.70 → $502.70
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$504.73 → $504.73
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$511.00 → $511.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$506.74 → $506.74
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $500 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about VRTX
Why did the score rise from −28 to +3 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −28.2 on 30 Sep, then rose to +8.9 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $546.12 to $522.81. It’s at +3.1 now.+5.2 from volume and −2.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 20:02 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our VRTX record what it is? What’s the $500 wall?