AEP American Electric Power Company Inc
$122.32 · +2.30% vs $119.57 close · scored 23:23 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 61/100
What changed
Composite weakened 51.6 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−27.4 composite┆ +24.1 yesterday (−51.6) −23.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 35% today
1,891 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.80
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
What traded today · weight 62%
−33.7 pts
432 calls · 22.8% 1,459 puts
bias −54.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.2 pts
14,160 call OI · 58.2% 10,165 put OI
bias +16.4 × 0.38
Equals
−27.4
84% of the score comes from today’s volume, 16% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.96% · tape +13.6 · corr -0.43
◆ −82.4 in a day ▼ low −56.2 ● peak +50 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $125 $118 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.96% while the tape has firmed 13.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 85 · 1,891 contracts
note Jumpy 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 57
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on AEP is mixed 40% hit rate on 411 closed calls · payoff 2.82×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $122.32 highlighted. The $125 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,512). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
8 Oct · 4h
$122.32 → $122.32
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$119.57 → $119.57
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$121.23 → $121.23
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$119.75 → $119.75
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 182 of these 411 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 21.18 · fwd 17.87 Beta 0.465
52w $112.54–$140.58 IV rank —
Ask about AEP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from −4 to −27 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −27.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $119.57 to $119.57. It’s at −27.4 now.−33.7 from volume and +6.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our AEP record what it is? What’s the $125 wall?
What our data projects
−0.53 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#586 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $125 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
American Electric Power Company Inc · Utilities
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−27.4 ┆ +24.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
Why it’s −27
−33.7 volume · 23% calls+6.2 OI · 58% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −82.4 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $125 $118 Price −3.96%, tape +13.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 85 · 1,891 contracts
note Jumpy 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 57
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
−33.7 pts
432 calls · 1,459 puts · bias −54.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.2 pts
14,160 call OI · 10,165 put OI · bias +16.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.96% · tape +13.6 · corr -0.43
◆ −82.4 in a day ▼ low −56.2 ● peak +50 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $125 $118 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.96% while the tape has firmed 13.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
40% hit rate · 411 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$122.32 → $122.32
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$119.57 → $119.57
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$121.23 → $121.23
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$119.75 → $119.75
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $125 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AEP
Why did the score drop from −4 to −27 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −27.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $119.57 to $119.57. It’s at −27.4 now.−33.7 from volume and +6.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our AEP record what it is? What’s the $125 wall?