AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc
$77.15 · +0.00% vs $77.15 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 72/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 72/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+12.0 composite┆ +12.0 yesterday (+0.0) −24.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
72 / 100 · top 10% today
7,517 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.90
hasn’t paid −0.56% · n=1,842
What traded today · weight 62%
+6.2 pts
4,132 calls · 55.0% 3,385 puts
bias +9.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+5.8 pts
32,451 call OI · 57.7% 23,822 put OI
bias +15.3 × 0.38
Equals
+12.0
51% of the score comes from today’s volume, 49% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.63% · tape −23.9 · corr -0.18
▼ low −25.2 ◆ −63.9 in a day ● peak +49 08-27 09-02 09-08 09-14 09-21 09-27 10-03 10-09 $78 $67 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.63% while the tape has faded 23.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (90th pct) · quality 90 · 7,517 contracts
pass Stable 0.90 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.56% avg, n=1,842
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AFRM’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.34, n=41)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on AFRM is poor 22% hit rate on 468 closed calls · payoff 0.72×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $77.15 highlighted. The $70 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,735). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on AFRM Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 223 of these 468 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 12.51 · fwd 32.85 Beta 3.804
52w $42.10–$90.44 IV rank —
Ask about AFRM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +30 to +12 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +25.8 on 6 Oct, then fell to +12.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $74.75 to $75.31. It’s at +12.0 now.+6.2 from volume and +5.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our AFRM record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?
What our data projects
+0.24 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#168 of 799 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Affirm Holdings Inc · Financial Services
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+12.0 ┆ +12.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.56% · n=1,842
Why it’s +12
+6.2 volume · 55% calls+5.8 OI · 58% calls
42 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −63.9 08-27 09-02 09-08 09-14 09-21 09-27 10-03 10-09 $78 $67 Price +6.63%, tape −23.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (90th pct) · quality 90 · 7,517 contracts
pass Stable 0.90 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.56% avg, n=1,842
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AFRM’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.34, n=41)
What traded today · 62%
+6.2 pts
4,132 calls · 3,385 puts · bias +9.9
What’s on the books · 38%
+5.8 pts
32,451 call OI · 23,822 put OI · bias +15.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.63% · tape −23.9 · corr -0.18
▼ low −25.2 ◆ −63.9 in a day ● peak +49 08-27 09-02 09-08 09-14 09-21 09-27 10-03 10-09 $78 $67 Over 30 days, price has risen 6.63% while the tape has faded 23.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
22% hit rate · 468 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.15 → $77.15
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AFRM
Why did the score drop from +30 to +12 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +25.8 on 6 Oct, then fell to +12.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $74.75 to $75.31. It’s at +12.0 now.+6.2 from volume and +5.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our AFRM record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?