ALL Allstate Corp
$230.63 · +3.08% vs $223.74 close · scored 21:39 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 58/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 58/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.4 composite−29.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
58 / 100 · top 42% today
2,566 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
What traded today · weight 62%
−30.4 pts
653 calls · 25.4% 1,913 puts
bias −49.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−5.9 pts
7,229 call OI · 42.2% 9,901 put OI
bias −15.6 × 0.38
Equals
−36.4
84% of the score comes from today’s volume, 16% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.80% · tape −17.2 · corr 0.11
▼ low −67.7 ● peak +31 ◆ −78.0 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $263 $222 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.80% while the tape has faded 17.2 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 77 · 2,566 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
pass Tape has led price tape has led ALL’s price by 2 days (r=0.45, n=43)
note Our record on ALL is mixed 37% hit rate on 387 closed calls · payoff 1.34×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $230.63 highlighted. The $210 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,016). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
8 Oct · 4h
$230.63 → $230.63
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$223.74 → $223.74
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$223.74 → $223.74
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$223.95 → $223.95
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 173 of these 387 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 4.25 · fwd 7.70 Beta 0.167
52w $188.08–$277.22 IV rank —
Ask about ALL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from −7 to −36 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +30.5 on 3 Oct, then fell to −47.5 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $223.95 to $223.74. It’s at −36.4 now.−30.4 from volume and −5.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 21:39 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our ALL record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?
What our data projects
−0.42 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#542 of 635 · helped by tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Allstate Corp · Insurance
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.4 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
Why it’s −36
−30.4 volume · 25% calls−5.9 OI · 42% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −78.0 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $263 $222 Price −13.80%, tape −17.2 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 77 · 2,566 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
note Our record on ALL is mixed 37% hit rate on 387 closed calls · payoff 1.34×
What traded today · 62%
−30.4 pts
653 calls · 1,913 puts · bias −49.1
What’s on the books · 38%
−5.9 pts
7,229 call OI · 9,901 put OI · bias −15.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.80% · tape −17.2 · corr 0.11
▼ low −67.7 ● peak +31 ◆ −78.0 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $263 $222 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.80% while the tape has faded 17.2 points. They agree.
37% hit rate · 387 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$230.63 → $230.63
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$223.74 → $223.74
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$223.74 → $223.74
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$223.95 → $223.95
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ALL
Why did the score drop from −7 to −36 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +30.5 on 3 Oct, then fell to −47.5 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $223.95 to $223.74. It’s at −36.4 now.−30.4 from volume and −5.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 21:39 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our ALL record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?