ALMS Alumis Inc
$6.07 · +0.00% vs $6.07 close · scored 07:16 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 48/100
What changed
Composite weakened 17.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 48/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−35.1 composite┆ −17.3 yesterday (−17.8) −91.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
48 / 100 · top 53% today
171 contracts · quality 72 · stability 0.77
has paid −0.38% · n=14,059
What traded today · weight 62%
−57.6 pts
6 calls · 3.5% 165 puts
bias −93.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+22.5 pts
12,258 call OI · 79.6% 3,136 put OI
bias +59.3 × 0.38
Equals
−35.1
72% of the score comes from today’s volume, 28% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −34.42% · tape −22.6 · corr -0.22
▼ low −45.0 ● peak +74 ◆ +91.9 in a day 09-01 09-07 09-13 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-15 $11 $6 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 34.42% while the tape has faded 22.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 48 (47th pct) · quality 72 · 171 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.38% avg, n=14,059
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=40)
against Our record on ALMS is poor 21% hit rate on 823 closed calls · payoff 0.79×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $6.07 highlighted. The $25 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,016). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on ALMS Proof 14 Oct · 4h
$6.07 → $6.07
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.07 → $6.07
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.20 → $6.20
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.56 → $6.20
−5.49% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 428 of these 823 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 0.997
52w $3.92–$31.35 IV rank —
Ask about ALMS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from −2 to −35 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +56.8 on 13 Oct, then fell to −35.1 on 14 Oct as the price moved from $6.56 to $6.56. It’s at −35.1 now.−57.6 from volume and +22.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 41 pts stock_scores · 07:16 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our ALMS record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?
What our data projects
+0.12 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#240 of 855 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Alumis Inc · Pharmaceuticals
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−35.1 ┆ −17.3 yday evidence
has paid −0.38% · n=14,059
Why it’s −35
−57.6 volume · 4% calls+22.5 OI · 80% calls
41 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +91.9 09-01 09-07 09-13 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-15 $11 $6 Price −34.42%, tape −22.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 48 (47th pct) · quality 72 · 171 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=40)
against Our record on ALMS is poor 21% hit rate on 823 closed calls · payoff 0.79×
What traded today · 62%
−57.6 pts
6 calls · 165 puts · bias −93.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+22.5 pts
12,258 call OI · 3,136 put OI · bias +59.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −34.42% · tape −22.6 · corr -0.22
▼ low −45.0 ● peak +74 ◆ +91.9 in a day 09-01 09-07 09-13 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-15 $11 $6 Over 30 days, price has fallen 34.42% while the tape has faded 22.6 points. They agree.
21% hit rate · 823 closed
14 Oct · 4h
$6.07 → $6.07
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.07 → $6.07
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.20 → $6.20
+0.00% flat
14 Oct · 4h
$6.56 → $6.20
−5.49% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ALMS
Why did the score drop from −2 to −35 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +56.8 on 13 Oct, then fell to −35.1 on 14 Oct as the price moved from $6.56 to $6.56. It’s at −35.1 now.−57.6 from volume and +22.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 41 pts stock_scores · 07:16 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our ALMS record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?