JNJ Johnson & Johnson
$258.41 · +0.82% vs $256.30 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 73/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 21.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 73/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.5 composite┆ +21.7 yesterday (+21.8) +40.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
73 / 100 · top 11% today
10,222 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.72
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+40.4 pts
8,439 calls · 82.6% 1,783 puts
bias +65.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+3.1 pts
43,264 call OI · 54.1% 36,759 put OI
bias +8.1 × 0.38
Equals
+43.5
93% of the score comes from today’s volume, 7% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.76% · tape +74.9 · corr -0.40
◆ +76.7 in a day ▼ low −62.9 ● peak +43 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $279 $256 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.76% while the tape has firmed 74.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 73 (89th pct) · quality 85 · 10,222 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led JNJ’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.20, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on JNJ is poor 14% hit rate on 1447 closed calls · payoff 2.61×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $258.41 highlighted. The $260 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,142). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
14%
hit rate · 1447 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$258.41 → $258.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1099 of these 1447 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 29.13 · fwd 21.98 Beta 0.199
52w $182.94–$281.07 IV rank —
Ask about JNJ answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +3 to +43 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +17.9 on 8 Oct, then rose to +43.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $258.45 to $256.30. It’s at +43.5 now.+40.4 from volume and +3.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our JNJ record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?
What our data projects
−0.23 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#435 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Johnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.5 ┆ +21.7 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +43
+40.4 volume · 83% calls+3.1 OI · 54% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +76.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $279 $256 Price −4.76%, tape +74.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 73 (89th pct) · quality 85 · 10,222 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led JNJ’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.20, n=51)
What traded today · 62%
+40.4 pts
8,439 calls · 1,783 puts · bias +65.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+3.1 pts
43,264 call OI · 36,759 put OI · bias +8.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.76% · tape +74.9 · corr -0.40
◆ +76.7 in a day ▼ low −62.9 ● peak +43 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $279 $256 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.76% while the tape has firmed 74.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
14% hit rate · 1447 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$258.41 → $258.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$256.48 → $258.41
+0.75% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about JNJ
Why did the score rise from +3 to +43 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +17.9 on 8 Oct, then rose to +43.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $258.45 to $256.30. It’s at +43.5 now.+40.4 from volume and +3.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our JNJ record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?