APA APA Corp (US)
$45.47 · +0.75% vs $45.13 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 65/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+24.6 composite+16.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
4,488 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.0 pts
2,677 calls · 59.6% 1,811 puts
bias +19.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.6 pts
28,543 call OI · 66.6% 14,319 put OI
bias +33.2 × 0.38
Equals
+24.6
49% of the score comes from today’s volume, 51% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.63% · tape +35.0 · corr 0.11
● peak +26 ◆ −39.6 in a day ▼ low −26.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $45 $42 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.63% while the tape has firmed 35.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 79 · 4,488 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led APA’s tape by 2 days (r=0.40, n=44)
against Our record on APA is poor 19% hit rate on 402 closed calls · payoff 0.87×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $45.47 highlighted. The $45 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 8,346). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.47
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$45.13 → $45.47
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.13
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.13
−0.75% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 154 of these 402 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 9.15 · fwd 8.80 Beta 0.345
52w $21.63–$47.44 IV rank —
Ask about APA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +8 to +25 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +16.2 on 7 Oct, then rose to +24.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $43.68 to $43.68. It’s at +24.6 now.+12.0 from volume and +12.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our APA record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?
What our data projects
−0.22 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#421 of 635 · helped by confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
APA Corp (US) · Energy
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+24.6 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +25
+12.0 volume · 60% calls+12.6 OI · 67% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −39.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $45 $42 Price +3.63%, tape +35.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 79 · 4,488 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led APA’s tape by 2 days (r=0.40, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+12.0 pts
2,677 calls · 1,811 puts · bias +19.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.6 pts
28,543 call OI · 14,319 put OI · bias +33.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.63% · tape +35.0 · corr 0.11
● peak +26 ◆ −39.6 in a day ▼ low −26.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $45 $42 Over 30 days, price has risen 3.63% while the tape has firmed 35.0 points. They agree.
19% hit rate · 402 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.47
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$45.13 → $45.47
+0.75% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.13
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$45.47 → $45.13
−0.75% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about APA
Why did the score rise from +8 to +25 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +16.2 on 7 Oct, then rose to +24.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $43.68 to $43.68. It’s at +24.6 now.+12.0 from volume and +12.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our APA record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?