XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corp
$168.50 · +0.00% vs $168.50 close · scored 14:22 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 74/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+23.1 composite−3.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
74 / 100 · top 9% today
32,598 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+15.6 pts
20,395 calls · 62.6% 12,203 puts
bias +25.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+7.6 pts
117,453 call OI · 59.9% 78,469 put OI
bias +19.9 × 0.38
Equals
+23.1
67% of the score comes from today’s volume, 33% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.88% · tape −9.6 · corr -0.34
▼ low +11.4 ● peak +60 ◆ −32.3 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $169 $156 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 4.88% while the tape has faded 9.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 82 · 32,598 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XOM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.18, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on XOM is poor 20% hit rate on 1541 closed calls · payoff 2.01×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $168.50 highlighted. The $175 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 24,676). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
20%
hit rate · 1541 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1015 of these 1541 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 20.81 · fwd 14.34 Beta 0.187
52w $110.39–$176.41 IV rank —
Ask about XOM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +23.1?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +23.1 across the last 8 sessions.+15.6 from volume and +7.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our XOM record what it is? What’s the $175 wall?
What our data projects
−0.02 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#282 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $175 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Exxonmobil Holdings Corp · Energy
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+23.1 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +23
+15.6 volume · 63% calls+7.6 OI · 60% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −32.3 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $169 $156 Price +4.88%, tape −9.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 82 · 32,598 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XOM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.18, n=51)
What traded today · 62%
+15.6 pts
20,395 calls · 12,203 puts · bias +25.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+7.6 pts
117,453 call OI · 78,469 put OI · bias +19.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.88% · tape −9.6 · corr -0.34
▼ low +11.4 ● peak +60 ◆ −32.3 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $169 $156 Over 30 days, price has risen 4.88% while the tape has faded 9.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
20% hit rate · 1541 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$168.50 → $168.50
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $175 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about XOM
What is behind today’s +23.1?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +23.1 across the last 8 sessions.+15.6 from volume and +7.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our XOM record what it is? What’s the $175 wall?