APD Air Products and Chemicals Inc
$278.38 · −0.55% vs $279.93 close · scored 12:56 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 56/100
What changed
Composite weakened 9.7 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 56/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.1 composite┆ +31.8 yesterday (−9.7) +34.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
56 / 100 · top 47% today
370 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.81
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
What traded today · weight 62%
+2.3 pts
192 calls · 51.9% 178 puts
bias +3.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+19.8 pts
7,766 call OI · 76.0% 2,448 put OI
bias +52.1 × 0.38
Equals
+22.1
11% of the score comes from today’s volume, 89% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.97% · tape −27.0 · corr 0.38
▼ low −32.9 ◆ −74.8 in a day ● peak +51 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $282 $273 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.97% while the tape has faded 27.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 84 · 370 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
against Our record on APD is poor 6% hit rate on 1605 closed calls · payoff 0.60×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $278.38 highlighted. The $340 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,625). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$278.38 → $278.38
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$277.57 → $277.57
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$277.57 → $277.57
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$273.33 → $273.33
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1293 of these 1605 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — · fwd 20.00 Beta 0.700
52w $229.11–$314.87 IV rank —
Ask about APD answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −13 to +22 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −12.7 on 2 Oct, then rose to +50.9 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $273.33 to $277.57. It’s at +22.1 now.+2.3 from volume and +19.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 12:56 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our APD record what it is? What’s the $340 wall?
What our data projects
−0.21 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#414 of 635 · helped by quality, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $340 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Air Products and Chemicals Inc · Chemicals
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.1 ┆ +31.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
Why it’s +22
+2.3 volume · 52% calls+19.8 OI · 76% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −74.8 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $282 $273 Price −5.97%, tape −27.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 84 · 370 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
What traded today · 62%
+2.3 pts
192 calls · 178 puts · bias +3.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+19.8 pts
7,766 call OI · 2,448 put OI · bias +52.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.97% · tape −27.0 · corr 0.38
▼ low −32.9 ◆ −74.8 in a day ● peak +51 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $282 $273 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.97% while the tape has faded 27.0 points. They agree.
6% hit rate · 1605 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$278.38 → $278.38
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$277.57 → $277.57
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$277.57 → $277.57
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$273.33 → $273.33
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $340 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about APD
Why did the score rise from −13 to +22 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −12.7 on 2 Oct, then rose to +50.9 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $273.33 to $277.57. It’s at +22.1 now.+2.3 from volume and +19.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 12:56 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our APD record what it is? What’s the $340 wall?