ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc
$45.60 · −3.74% vs $47.37 close · scored 22:59 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 49/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 49/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−40.4 composite−17.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
49 / 100 · top 63% today
196 contracts · quality 68 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
What traded today · weight 62%
−44.9 pts
27 calls · 13.8% 169 puts
bias −72.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+4.6 pts
9,699 call OI · 56.0% 7,616 put OI
bias +12.0 × 0.38
Equals
−40.4
91% of the score comes from today’s volume, 9% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.70% · tape −79.9 · corr 0.26
● peak +40 ▼ low −51.2 ◆ +78.6 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-08 $56 $47 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.70% while the tape has faded 79.9 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 49 (37th pct) · quality 68 · 196 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
pass Tape has led price tape has led ARE’s price by 2 days (r=-0.18, n=44)
against Our record on ARE is poor 29% hit rate on 381 closed calls · payoff 2.76×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $45.60 highlighted. The $50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,741). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
8 Oct · 4h
$45.60 → $45.60
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$47.37 → $47.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$47.54 → $47.54
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$47.03 → $47.03
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 204 of these 381 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E — · fwd 31.37 Beta 1.184
52w $39.41–$85.37 IV rank —
Ask about ARE answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from −23 to −40 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was −22.7 on 1 Oct, then rose to +36.6 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $47.46 to $47.03. It’s at −40.4 now.−44.9 from volume and +4.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 22:59 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our ARE record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?
What our data projects
+0.17 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#186 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc · Real Estate
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−40.4 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
Why it’s −40
−44.9 volume · 14% calls+4.6 OI · 56% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +78.6 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-08 $56 $47 Price −6.70%, tape −79.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 49 (37th pct) · quality 68 · 196 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
against Our record on ARE is poor 29% hit rate on 381 closed calls · payoff 2.76×
What traded today · 62%
−44.9 pts
27 calls · 169 puts · bias −72.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+4.6 pts
9,699 call OI · 7,616 put OI · bias +12.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.70% · tape −79.9 · corr 0.26
● peak +40 ▼ low −51.2 ◆ +78.6 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-08 $56 $47 Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.70% while the tape has faded 79.9 points. They agree.
29% hit rate · 381 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$45.60 → $45.60
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$47.37 → $47.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$47.54 → $47.54
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$47.03 → $47.03
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ARE
Why did the score drop from −23 to −40 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was −22.7 on 1 Oct, then rose to +36.6 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $47.46 to $47.03. It’s at −40.4 now.−44.9 from volume and +4.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 22:59 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our ARE record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?