AVY Avery Dennison Corp
$167.82 · +0.12% vs $167.62 close · scored 10:31 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 54/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.2 composite+50.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 52% today
255 contracts · quality 72 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
What traded today · weight 62%
−5.1 pts
117 calls · 45.9% 138 puts
bias −8.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.3 pts
1,049 call OI · 70.1% 447 put OI
bias +40.2 × 0.38
Equals
+10.2
25% of the score comes from today’s volume, 75% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.16% · tape −58.3 · corr 0.27
● peak +78 ▼ low −40.5 ◆ +85.0 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $174 $167 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.16% while the tape has faded 58.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 72 · 255 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AVY’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.20, n=45)
against Our record on AVY is poor 9% hit rate on 794 closed calls · payoff 1.14×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $167.82 highlighted. The $180 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 377). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$169.87 → $167.82
−1.21% miss
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $167.82
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $169.87
+1.22% hit
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $167.82
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 580 of these 794 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 18.26 · fwd 15.77 Beta 0.801
52w $152.42–$199.54 IV rank —
Ask about AVY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −40 to +10 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −40.5 on 3 Oct, then rose to +44.5 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $169.87 to $169.87. It’s at +10.2 now.−5.1 from volume and +15.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with PKG Why is our AVY record what it is? What’s the $180 wall?
What our data projects
−0.65 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#614 of 635 · helped by tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $180 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Avery Dennison Corp · Packaging
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.2 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
Why it’s +10
−5.1 volume · 46% calls+15.3 OI · 70% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +85.0 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $174 $167 Price −1.16%, tape −58.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 72 · 255 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AVY’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.20, n=45)
What traded today · 62%
−5.1 pts
117 calls · 138 puts · bias −8.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.3 pts
1,049 call OI · 447 put OI · bias +40.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.16% · tape −58.3 · corr 0.27
● peak +78 ▼ low −40.5 ◆ +85.0 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $174 $167 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.16% while the tape has faded 58.3 points. They agree.
9% hit rate · 794 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$169.87 → $167.82
−1.21% miss
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $167.82
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $169.87
+1.22% hit
10 Oct · 4h
$167.82 → $167.82
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $180 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AVY
Why did the score rise from −40 to +10 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −40.5 on 3 Oct, then rose to +44.5 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $169.87 to $169.87. It’s at +10.2 now.−5.1 from volume and +15.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with PKG Why is our AVY record what it is? What’s the $180 wall?