AXP American Express Co
$305.80 · +0.59% vs $303.99 close · scored 15:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 63/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 63/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.5 composite−28.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
63 / 100 · top 30% today
7,056 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+16.6 pts
4,475 calls · 63.4% 2,581 puts
bias +26.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.2 pts
23,971 call OI · 47.2% 26,865 put OI
bias −5.7 × 0.38
Equals
+14.5
88% of the score comes from today’s volume, 12% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.78% · tape +9.5 · corr -0.17
● peak +45 ▼ low −18.9 ◆ +53.9 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $336 $302 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.78% while the tape has firmed 9.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 79 · 7,056 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AXP’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.37, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on AXP is poor 29% hit rate on 418 closed calls · payoff 0.89×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $305.80 highlighted. The $310 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,915). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$305.80 → $305.80
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 182 of these 418 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 17.87 · fwd 15.68 Beta 1.100
52w $290.97–$387.49 IV rank —
Ask about AXP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +43 to +14 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +38.7 on 8 Oct, then fell to +14.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $304.25 to $303.99. It’s at +14.5 now.+16.6 from volume and −2.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our AXP record what it is? What’s the $310 wall?
What our data projects
−0.39 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#532 of 635 · helped by composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $310 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
American Express Co · Financial Services
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.5 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +14
+16.6 volume · 63% calls−2.2 OI · 47% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +53.9 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $336 $302 Price −6.78%, tape +9.5 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 79 · 7,056 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AXP’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.37, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+16.6 pts
4,475 calls · 2,581 puts · bias +26.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.2 pts
23,971 call OI · 26,865 put OI · bias −5.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.78% · tape +9.5 · corr -0.17
● peak +45 ▼ low −18.9 ◆ +53.9 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $336 $302 Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.78% while the tape has firmed 9.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
29% hit rate · 418 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$305.80 → $305.80
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$308.10 → $305.80
−0.75% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $310 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AXP
Why did the score drop from +43 to +14 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +38.7 on 8 Oct, then fell to +14.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $304.25 to $303.99. It’s at +14.5 now.+16.6 from volume and −2.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our AXP record what it is? What’s the $310 wall?