BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
$107.00 · +0.00% vs $107.00 close · scored 07:55 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 88/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 17.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 88/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+41.8 composite┆ +23.9 yesterday (+17.9) +17.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
88 / 100 · top 2% today
61,270 contracts · quality 95 · stability 0.94
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
What traded today · weight 62%
+20.9 pts
40,962 calls · 66.9% 20,308 puts
bias +33.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+20.9 pts
325,037 call OI · 77.5% 94,323 put OI
bias +55.0 × 0.38
Equals
+41.8
50% of the score comes from today’s volume, 50% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.31% · tape +35.5 · corr -0.01
▼ low +6.3 ◆ −23.4 in a day ● peak +50 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $119 $106 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.31% while the tape has firmed 35.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 88 (98th pct) · quality 95 · 61,270 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.17% avg, n=12,971
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on BABA is poor 28% hit rate on 908 closed calls · payoff 1.51×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $107.00. The $160 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 53,710). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on BABA Proof 4 Oct · 4h
$105.85 → $105.85
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$105.80 → $105.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$106.51 → $106.51
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$107.62 → $107.62
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 476 of these 908 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report 20 Aug BMO
P/E 25.09 · fwd 14.74 Beta 0.387
52w $91.99–$189.61 IV rank —
Ask about BABA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +24 to +42 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.9 on 3 Oct, then rose to +41.8 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $105.80 to $105.80. It’s at +41.8 now.+20.9 from volume and +20.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 07:55 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our BABA record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?
What our data projects
+0.20 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#165 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd · Retail
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+41.8 ┆ +23.9 yday evidence
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
Why it’s +42
+20.9 volume · 67% calls+20.9 OI · 78% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −23.4 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $119 $106 Price −2.31%, tape +35.5 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 88 (98th pct) · quality 95 · 61,270 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+20.9 pts
40,962 calls · 20,308 puts · bias +33.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+20.9 pts
325,037 call OI · 94,323 put OI · bias +55.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.31% · tape +35.5 · corr -0.01
▼ low +6.3 ◆ −23.4 in a day ● peak +50 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $119 $106 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.31% while the tape has firmed 35.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
28% hit rate · 908 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$105.85 → $105.85
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$105.80 → $105.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$106.51 → $106.51
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$107.62 → $107.62
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BABA
Why did the score rise from +24 to +42 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.9 on 3 Oct, then rose to +41.8 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $105.80 to $105.80. It’s at +41.8 now.+20.9 from volume and +20.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 07:55 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our BABA record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?