BIDU Baidu Inc
$85.36 · +1.72% vs $83.92 close · scored 15:45 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 68/100
What changed
Composite weakened 19.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 68/100
For the read
signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+6.7 composite┆ +25.8 yesterday (−19.0) −8.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
68 / 100 · top 17% today
11,425 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.82
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
What traded today · weight 62%
−4.4 pts
5,308 calls · 46.5% 6,117 puts
bias −7.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.1 pts
61,329 call OI · 64.6% 33,562 put OI
bias +29.3 × 0.38
Equals
+6.7
28% of the score comes from today’s volume, 72% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.94% · tape +18.3 · corr 0.39
◆ +78.0 in a day ● peak +64 ▼ low −16.3 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $100 $84 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.94% while the tape has firmed 18.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 89 · 11,425 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led BIDU’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.23, n=46)
against Our record on BIDU is poor 19% hit rate on 1207 closed calls · payoff 2.07×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $85.36 highlighted. The $95 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,490). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on BIDU Proof 19%
hit rate · 1207 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$85.36 → $85.36
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 881 of these 1207 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 41.82 · fwd 13.39 Beta 0.556
52w $83.95–$165.30 IV rank —
Ask about BIDU answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +15 to +7 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +22.8 on 8 Oct, then fell to +6.7 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $85.30 to $83.92. It’s at +6.7 now.−4.4 from volume and +11.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our BIDU record what it is? What’s the $95 wall?
What our data projects
−0.27 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#466 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $95 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Baidu Inc · Media
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+6.7 ┆ +25.8 yday evidence
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
Why it’s +7
−4.4 volume · 46% calls+11.1 OI · 65% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +78.0 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $100 $84 Price −8.94%, tape +18.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 89 · 11,425 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led BIDU’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.23, n=46)
What traded today · 62%
−4.4 pts
5,308 calls · 6,117 puts · bias −7.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.1 pts
61,329 call OI · 33,562 put OI · bias +29.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.94% · tape +18.3 · corr 0.39
◆ +78.0 in a day ● peak +64 ▼ low −16.3 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $100 $84 Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.94% while the tape has firmed 18.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
19% hit rate · 1207 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$85.36 → $85.36
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$83.92 → $85.36
+1.72% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $95 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BIDU
Why did the score drop from +15 to +7 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +22.8 on 8 Oct, then fell to +6.7 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $85.30 to $83.92. It’s at +6.7 now.−4.4 from volume and +11.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our BIDU record what it is? What’s the $95 wall?