BILI Bilibili Inc
$14.85 · +0.68% vs $14.75 close · scored 00:57 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 70/100
What changed
Composite weakened 15.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 70/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.3 composite┆ +47.3 yesterday (−15.0) −36.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
70 / 100 · top 14% today
6,428 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.71
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+22.6 pts
4,386 calls · 68.2% 2,042 puts
bias +36.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+9.7 pts
123,235 call OI · 62.8% 73,116 put OI
bias +25.5 × 0.38
Equals
+32.3
70% of the score comes from today’s volume, 30% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.15% · tape −17.9 · corr -0.03
▼ low −62.2 ◆ +112.5 in a day ● peak +70 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-08 $17 $14 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.15% while the tape has faded 17.9 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 70 (86th pct) · quality 85 · 6,428 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=42)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on BILI is poor 28% hit rate on 623 closed calls · payoff 0.91×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $14.85 highlighted. The $18 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 27,268). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on BILI Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$14.85 → $14.85
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 198 of these 623 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report 27 Aug BMO
P/E 27.81 · fwd 12.45 Beta 0.584
52w $14.32–$36.40 IV rank —
Ask about BILI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +69 to +32 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +68.8 on 1 Oct, then fell to +50.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $15.02 to $14.78. It’s at +32.3 now.+22.6 from volume and +9.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 00:57 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our BILI record what it is? What’s the $18 wall?
What our data projects
−0.08 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#364 of 724 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $18 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Bilibili Inc · Media
Strongly bullish, well evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.3 ┆ +47.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +32
+22.6 volume · 68% calls+9.7 OI · 63% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +112.5 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-08 $17 $14 Price −3.15%, tape −17.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 70 (86th pct) · quality 85 · 6,428 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=42)
What traded today · 62%
+22.6 pts
4,386 calls · 2,042 puts · bias +36.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+9.7 pts
123,235 call OI · 73,116 put OI · bias +25.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.15% · tape −17.9 · corr -0.03
▼ low −62.2 ◆ +112.5 in a day ● peak +70 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-08 $17 $14 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.15% while the tape has faded 17.9 points. They agree.
28% hit rate · 623 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$14.85 → $14.85
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$14.44 → $14.44
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $18 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BILI
Why did the score drop from +69 to +32 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +68.8 on 1 Oct, then fell to +50.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $15.02 to $14.78. It’s at +32.3 now.+22.6 from volume and +9.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 00:57 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our BILI record what it is? What’s the $18 wall?