BKNG Booking Holdings Inc
$159.97 · +0.00% vs $159.97 close · scored 14:23 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 71/100
What changed
Composite weakened 1.2 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 71/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.6 composite┆ −6.4 yesterday (−1.2) −32.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
71 / 100 · top 13% today
10,284 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.83
neutral · −0.20% · n=1,229
What traded today · weight 62%
−14.5 pts
3,941 calls · 38.3% 6,343 puts
bias −23.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.9 pts
45,602 call OI · 59.0% 31,630 put OI
bias +18.1 × 0.38
Equals
−7.6
68% of the score comes from today’s volume, 32% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.28% · tape −24.0 · corr -0.05
● peak +35 ▼ low −38.1 ◆ −50.6 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $206 $156 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.28% while the tape has faded 24.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 89 · 10,284 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.20% avg, n=1,229
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led BKNG’s tape by 2 days (r=0.18, n=44)
note Our record on BKNG is mixed 38% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 0.61×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $159.97 highlighted. The $162.40 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 15,757). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on BKNG Proof 38%
hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 499 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.57 · fwd 13.90 Beta 1.147
52w $150.14–$225.00 IV rank —
Ask about BKNG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +25 to −8 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +12.2 on 7 Oct, then fell to −7.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $158.33 to $155.87. It’s at −7.6 now.−14.5 from volume and +6.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:23 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our BKNG record what it is? What’s the $162.4 wall?
What our data projects
+0.13 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#203 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $162.4 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Booking Holdings Inc · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Neutral, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.6 ┆ −6.4 yday evidence
neutral · −0.20% · n=1,229
Why it’s −8
−14.5 volume · 38% calls+6.9 OI · 59% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −50.6 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $206 $156 Price −11.28%, tape −24.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 89 · 10,284 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.20% avg, n=1,229
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led BKNG’s tape by 2 days (r=0.18, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−14.5 pts
3,941 calls · 6,343 puts · bias −23.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.9 pts
45,602 call OI · 31,630 put OI · bias +18.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.28% · tape −24.0 · corr -0.05
● peak +35 ▼ low −38.1 ◆ −50.6 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $206 $156 Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.28% while the tape has faded 24.0 points. They agree.
38% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$159.97 → $159.97
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $162.4 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BKNG
Why did the score drop from +25 to −8 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +12.2 on 7 Oct, then fell to −7.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $158.33 to $155.87. It’s at −7.6 now.−14.5 from volume and +6.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:23 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our BKNG record what it is? What’s the $162.4 wall?