CAT Caterpillar Inc
$797.82 · +0.09% vs $797.07 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 72/100
What changed
Composite weakened 1.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 72/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−2.0 composite┆ −0.6 yesterday (−1.4) −1.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
72 / 100 · top 11% today
7,596 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.84
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
What traded today · weight 62%
+0.7 pts
3,840 calls · 50.6% 3,756 puts
bias +1.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.7 pts
29,566 call OI · 46.5% 34,069 put OI
bias −7.1 × 0.38
Equals
−2.0
20% of the score comes from today’s volume, 80% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.09% · tape +19.8 · corr -0.31
◆ +43.5 in a day ▼ low −38.6 ● peak +12 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $863 $779 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.09% while the tape has firmed 19.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (89th pct) · quality 89 · 7,596 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CAT’s tape by 3 days (r=0.23, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on CAT is poor 6% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 0.53×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $797.82 highlighted. The $900 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,327). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$797.82 → $797.82
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 337 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 36.02 · fwd 25.96 Beta 1.595
52w $483.55–$1,073.46 IV rank —
Ask about CAT answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s −2.0?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 1.0 points of −2.0 across the last 8 sessions.+0.7 from volume and −2.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our CAT record what it is? What’s the $900 wall?
What our data projects
+0.43 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#83 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $900 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Caterpillar Inc · Machinery
Neutral, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−2.0 ┆ −0.6 yday evidence
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
Why it’s −2
+0.7 volume · 51% calls−2.7 OI · 46% calls
52 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +43.5 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $863 $779 Price −3.09%, tape +19.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (89th pct) · quality 89 · 7,596 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CAT’s tape by 3 days (r=0.23, n=51)
What traded today · 62%
+0.7 pts
3,840 calls · 3,756 puts · bias +1.1
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.7 pts
29,566 call OI · 34,069 put OI · bias −7.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.09% · tape +19.8 · corr -0.31
◆ +43.5 in a day ▼ low −38.6 ● peak +12 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $863 $779 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.09% while the tape has firmed 19.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
6% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$797.82 → $797.82
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$796.18 → $797.82
+0.21% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $900 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CAT
What is behind today’s −2.0?
The composite has held within 1.0 points of −2.0 across the last 8 sessions.+0.7 from volume and −2.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our CAT record what it is? What’s the $900 wall?