CF CF Industries Holdings Inc
$111.54 · +0.00% vs $111.54 close · scored 04:22 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 56/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 56/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.7 composite−4.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
56 / 100 · top 47% today
3,410 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.04% · n=9,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+23.5 pts
2,351 calls · 68.9% 1,059 puts
bias +37.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−0.8 pts
7,366 call OI · 49.0% 7,665 put OI
bias −2.0 × 0.38
Equals
+22.7
97% of the score comes from today’s volume, 3% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −19.05% · tape +11.5 · corr -0.31
● peak +35 ▼ low +0.5 ◆ −30.3 in a day 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-10 10-11 $138 $112 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 19.05% while the tape has firmed 11.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 78 · 3,410 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.04% avg, n=9,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.25, n=46)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on CF is poor 24% hit rate on 431 closed calls · payoff 1.11×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $111.54 highlighted. The $115 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,304). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$111.56 → $111.54
−0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.56 → $111.54
−0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.54 → $111.56
+0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.54 → $111.54
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 181 of these 431 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 8.41 · fwd 10.41 Beta 0.557
52w $75.42–$141.96 IV rank —
Ask about CF answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +28 to +23 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +27.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +5.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $115.01 to $114.44. It’s at +22.7 now.+23.5 from volume and −0.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 04:22 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our CF record what it is? What’s the $115 wall?
What our data projects
+0.19 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#182 of 724 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $115 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
CF Industries Holdings Inc · Chemicals
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.7 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.04% · n=9,387
Why it’s +23
+23.5 volume · 69% calls−0.8 OI · 49% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −30.3 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-10 10-11 $138 $112 Price −19.05%, tape +11.5 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 78 · 3,410 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.04% avg, n=9,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.25, n=46)
What traded today · 62%
+23.5 pts
2,351 calls · 1,059 puts · bias +37.9
What’s on the books · 38%
−0.8 pts
7,366 call OI · 7,665 put OI · bias −2.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −19.05% · tape +11.5 · corr -0.31
● peak +35 ▼ low +0.5 ◆ −30.3 in a day 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-10 10-11 $138 $112 Over 30 days, price has fallen 19.05% while the tape has firmed 11.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
24% hit rate · 431 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$111.56 → $111.54
−0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.56 → $111.54
−0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.54 → $111.56
+0.02% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$111.54 → $111.54
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $115 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CF
Why did the score drop from +28 to +23 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +27.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +5.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $115.01 to $114.44. It’s at +22.7 now.+23.5 from volume and −0.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 04:22 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our CF record what it is? What’s the $115 wall?