CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
$32.36 · +0.00% vs $32.36 close · scored 08:29 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 78/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 12.7 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 78/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+47.0 composite┆ +34.3 yesterday (+12.7) +0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
78 / 100 · top 5% today
16,650 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.84
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+28.9 pts
12,200 calls · 73.3% 4,450 puts
bias +46.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+18.2 pts
112,638 call OI · 73.9% 39,747 put OI
bias +47.8 × 0.38
Equals
+47.0
61% of the score comes from today’s volume, 39% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.87% · tape +22.4 · corr -0.16
▼ low −31.4 ◆ −54.9 in a day ● peak +52 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $39 $31 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.87% while the tape has firmed 22.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 78 (95th pct) · quality 90 · 16,650 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
pass Tape has led price tape has led CMG’s price by 3 days (r=0.16, n=46)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on CMG is poor 20% hit rate on 441 closed calls · payoff 0.48×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $32.36. The $33 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 37,714). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
4 Oct · 4h
$32.36 → $32.36
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$32.36 → $32.36
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.55 → $32.55
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.32 → $32.32
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 208 of these 441 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 28.85 · fwd 28.16 Beta 0.995
52w $28.04–$42.82 IV rank —
Ask about CMG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +47.0?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +47.0 across the last 8 sessions.+28.9 from volume and +18.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 08:29 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our CMG record what it is? What’s the $33 wall?
What our data projects
+0.34 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#118 of 724 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $33 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+47.0 ┆ +34.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +47
+28.9 volume · 73% calls+18.2 OI · 74% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −54.9 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $39 $31 Price −13.87%, tape +22.4 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 78 (95th pct) · quality 90 · 16,650 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+28.9 pts
12,200 calls · 4,450 puts · bias +46.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+18.2 pts
112,638 call OI · 39,747 put OI · bias +47.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.87% · tape +22.4 · corr -0.16
▼ low −31.4 ◆ −54.9 in a day ● peak +52 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $39 $31 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.87% while the tape has firmed 22.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
20% hit rate · 441 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$32.36 → $32.36
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$32.36 → $32.36
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.55 → $32.55
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.32 → $32.32
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $33 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CMG
What is behind today’s +47.0?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +47.0 across the last 8 sessions.+28.9 from volume and +18.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 08:29 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our CMG record what it is? What’s the $33 wall?