CMI Cummins Inc
$527.07 · +0.00% vs $527.07 close · scored 08:34 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 58/100
What changed
Composite weakened 17.6 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 58/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.8 composite┆ +50.4 yesterday (−17.6) −17.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
58 / 100 · top 42% today
1,281 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.77
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+30.7 pts
958 calls · 74.8% 323 puts
bias +49.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.1 pts
5,701 call OI · 52.7% 5,116 put OI
bias +5.4 × 0.38
Equals
+32.8
94% of the score comes from today’s volume, 6% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.33% · tape +12.2 · corr -0.08
▼ low −52.7 ◆ +93.0 in a day ● peak +50 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $565 $517 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.33% while the tape has firmed 12.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 83 · 1,281 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 55
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
pass Tape has led price tape has led CMI’s price by 1 day (r=0.34, n=46)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on CMI is poor 20% hit rate on 371 closed calls · payoff 0.50×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $527.07. The $530 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,081).
4 Oct · 4h
$528.32 → $528.32
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$529.40 → $529.40
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$539.16 → $539.16
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$517.00 → $517.00
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 170 of these 371 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 26.79 · fwd 15.84 Beta 1.233
52w $400.72–$737.76 IV rank —
Ask about CMI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +50 to +33 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +50.4 on 3 Oct, then fell to +32.8 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $529.40 to $529.40. It’s at +32.8 now.+30.7 from volume and +2.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 08:34 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our CMI record what it is? What’s the $530 wall?
What our data projects
+0.05 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#245 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $530 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Cummins Inc · Machinery
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.8 ┆ +50.4 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +33
+30.7 volume · 75% calls+2.1 OI · 53% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +93.0 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $565 $517 Price −4.33%, tape +12.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 83 · 1,281 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 55
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+30.7 pts
958 calls · 323 puts · bias +49.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.1 pts
5,701 call OI · 5,116 put OI · bias +5.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.33% · tape +12.2 · corr -0.08
▼ low −52.7 ◆ +93.0 in a day ● peak +50 08-29 09-05 09-12 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $565 $517 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.33% while the tape has firmed 12.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
20% hit rate · 371 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$528.32 → $528.32
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$529.40 → $529.40
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$539.16 → $539.16
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$517.00 → $517.00
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $530 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CMI
Why did the score drop from +50 to +33 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +50.4 on 3 Oct, then fell to +32.8 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $529.40 to $529.40. It’s at +32.8 now.+30.7 from volume and +2.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 08:34 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our CMI record what it is? What’s the $530 wall?