CMS CMS Energy Corp
$65.19 · −0.24% vs $65.34 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 53/100
What changed
Composite weakened 3.2 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 53/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+39.4 composite┆ +42.6 yesterday (−3.2) −34.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
53 / 100 · top 56% today
155 contracts · quality 59 · stability 0.79
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+21.2 pts
104 calls · 67.1% 51 puts
bias +34.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+18.2 pts
2,210 call OI · 73.9% 779 put OI
bias +47.9 × 0.38
Equals
+39.4
54% of the score comes from today’s volume, 46% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.02% · tape −30.5 · corr -0.21
▼ low −42.7 ◆ +116.4 in a day ● peak +97 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $69 $63 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.02% while the tape has faded 30.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 53 (44th pct) · quality 59 · 155 contracts
note Jumpy 0.79 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CMS’s tape by 1 day (r=0.20, n=44)
note Our record on CMS is mixed 35% hit rate on 404 closed calls · payoff 1.06×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $65.19 highlighted. The $70 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,347). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$65.19 → $65.19
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 201 of these 404 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 19.96 · fwd 15.76 Beta 0.322
52w $62.29–$80.36 IV rank —
Ask about CMS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +74 to +39 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +72.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to +42.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $63.74 to $65.07. It’s at +39.4 now.+21.2 from volume and +18.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our CMS record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?
What our data projects
−0.47 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#558 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, last day's move, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
CMS Energy Corp · Utilities
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+39.4 ┆ +42.6 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +39
+21.2 volume · 67% calls+18.2 OI · 74% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +116.4 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $69 $63 Price −5.02%, tape −30.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 53 (44th pct) · quality 59 · 155 contracts
note Jumpy 0.79 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CMS’s tape by 1 day (r=0.20, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+21.2 pts
104 calls · 51 puts · bias +34.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+18.2 pts
2,210 call OI · 779 put OI · bias +47.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.02% · tape −30.5 · corr -0.21
▼ low −42.7 ◆ +116.4 in a day ● peak +97 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $69 $63 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.02% while the tape has faded 30.5 points. They agree.
35% hit rate · 404 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$65.19 → $65.19
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$65.34 → $65.19
−0.24% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CMS
Why did the score drop from +74 to +39 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +72.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to +42.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $63.74 to $65.07. It’s at +39.4 now.+21.2 from volume and +18.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our CMS record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?