COF Capital One Financial Corp
$199.50 · +0.05% vs $199.40 close · scored 15:49 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 61/100
What changed
Composite weakened 32.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.8 composite┆ +43.7 yesterday (−32.9) −44.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 35% today
1,103 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.80
hasn’t paid −5.51% · n=1,662
What traded today · weight 62%
−12.9 pts
437 calls · 39.6% 666 puts
bias −20.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+23.6 pts
36,659 call OI · 81.1% 8,548 put OI
bias +62.2 × 0.38
Equals
+10.8
35% of the score comes from today’s volume, 65% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.81% · tape −33.8 · corr -0.04
▼ low −18.2 ◆ +58.9 in a day ● peak +70 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $221 $193 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.81% while the tape has faded 33.8 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 85 · 1,103 contracts
note Jumpy 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −5.51% avg, n=1,662
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led COF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.27, n=44)
note Our record on COF is mixed 38% hit rate on 403 closed calls · payoff 2.84×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $199.50 highlighted. The $210 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 12,032). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$199.50 → $199.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$195.14 → $199.50
+2.23% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$198.64 → $199.50
+0.43% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$199.40 → $199.50
+0.05% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 185 of these 403 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 11.43 · fwd 8.69 Beta 1.117
52w $174.24–$259.64 IV rank —
Ask about COF answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +55 to +11 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.9 on 8 Oct, then fell to +10.8 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $195.91 to $199.40. It’s at +10.8 now.−12.9 from volume and +23.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our COF record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?
What our data projects
−0.34 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#503 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Capital One Financial Corp · Financial Services
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.8 ┆ +43.7 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −5.51% · n=1,662
Why it’s +11
−12.9 volume · 40% calls+23.6 OI · 81% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +58.9 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $221 $193 Price −6.81%, tape −33.8 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 85 · 1,103 contracts
note Jumpy 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −5.51% avg, n=1,662
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led COF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.27, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−12.9 pts
437 calls · 666 puts · bias −20.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+23.6 pts
36,659 call OI · 8,548 put OI · bias +62.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.81% · tape −33.8 · corr -0.04
▼ low −18.2 ◆ +58.9 in a day ● peak +70 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $221 $193 Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.81% while the tape has faded 33.8 points. They agree.
38% hit rate · 403 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$199.50 → $199.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$195.14 → $199.50
+2.23% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$198.64 → $199.50
+0.43% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$199.40 → $199.50
+0.05% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about COF
Why did the score drop from +55 to +11 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.9 on 8 Oct, then fell to +10.8 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $195.91 to $199.40. It’s at +10.8 now.−12.9 from volume and +23.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our COF record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?