CRDF Cardiff Oncology Inc
$1.09 · +2.83% vs $1.06 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 62/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+88.1 composite┆ +87.3 yesterday (+0.8) −11.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 32% today
833 contracts · quality 63 · stability 0.92
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+50.7 pts
757 calls · 90.9% 76 puts
bias +81.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+37.4 pts
20,890 call OI · 99.3% 153 put OI
bias +98.5 × 0.38
Equals
+88.1
58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.75% · tape −11.2 · corr 0.37
▼ low +62.6 ◆ −35.4 in a day ● peak +100 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $1 $1 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.75% while the tape has faded 11.2 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 63 · 833 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CRDF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.24, n=45)
note Our record on CRDF is mixed 38% hit rate on 473 closed calls · payoff 4.33×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $1.09 highlighted. The $1.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,135). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on CRDF Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$1.09 → $1.09
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 221 of these 473 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.471
52w $0.76–$3.31 IV rank —
Ask about CRDF answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +100 to +88 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +99.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +87.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $1.13 to $1.09. It’s at +88.1 now.+50.7 from volume and +37.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our CRDF record what it is? What’s the $1.5 wall?
What our data projects
+0.36 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#106 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $1.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Cardiff Oncology Inc · Biotechnology
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+88.1 ┆ +87.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +88
+50.7 volume · 91% calls+37.4 OI · 99% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −35.4 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $1 $1 Price −2.75%, tape −11.2 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 63 · 833 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CRDF’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.24, n=45)
What traded today · 62%
+50.7 pts
757 calls · 76 puts · bias +81.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+37.4 pts
20,890 call OI · 153 put OI · bias +98.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.75% · tape −11.2 · corr 0.37
▼ low +62.6 ◆ −35.4 in a day ● peak +100 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $1 $1 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.75% while the tape has faded 11.2 points. They agree.
38% hit rate · 473 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$1.09 → $1.09
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.06 → $1.09
+2.83% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $1.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CRDF
Why did the score drop from +100 to +88 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +99.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +87.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $1.13 to $1.09. It’s at +88.1 now.+50.7 from volume and +37.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our CRDF record what it is? What’s the $1.5 wall?