CVX Chevron Corp
$208.41 · +0.00% vs $208.41 close · scored 20:07 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 67/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.4 composite−8.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
6,301 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+23.4 pts
4,341 calls · 68.9% 1,960 puts
bias +37.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.9 pts
75,869 call OI · 65.7% 39,583 put OI
bias +31.4 × 0.38
Equals
+35.4
66% of the score comes from today’s volume, 34% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.09% · tape +3.9 · corr -0.36
● peak +70 ▼ low −5.6 ◆ −42.9 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $218 $200 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.09% while the tape has barely moved (+3.9). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 80 · 6,301 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
pass Tape has led price tape has led CVX’s price by 2 days (r=-0.24, n=50)
against Our record on CVX is poor 9% hit rate on 1565 closed calls · payoff 0.75×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $208.41 highlighted. The $210 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 22,882). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
6 Oct · 4h
$208.41 → $208.41
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$206.69 → $206.69
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$206.69 → $206.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$205.49 → $205.49
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1199 of these 1565 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 19.69 · fwd 14.21 Beta 0.494
52w $146.49–$217.78 IV rank —
Ask about CVX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +40 to +35 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +25.2 on 1 Oct, then rose to +49.5 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $204.22 to $207.10. It’s at +35.4 now.+23.4 from volume and +11.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 20:07 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our CVX record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?
What our data projects
−0.16 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#438 of 724 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Chevron Corp · Energy
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.4 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +35
+23.4 volume · 69% calls+11.9 OI · 66% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −42.9 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $218 $200 Price −0.09%, tape +3.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 80 · 6,301 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
against Our record on CVX is poor 9% hit rate on 1565 closed calls · payoff 0.75×
What traded today · 62%
+23.4 pts
4,341 calls · 1,960 puts · bias +37.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.9 pts
75,869 call OI · 39,583 put OI · bias +31.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.09% · tape +3.9 · corr -0.36
● peak +70 ▼ low −5.6 ◆ −42.9 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $218 $200 Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.09% while the tape has barely moved (+3.9). The two are drifting apart.
9% hit rate · 1565 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$208.41 → $208.41
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$206.69 → $206.69
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$206.69 → $206.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$205.49 → $205.49
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $210 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CVX
Why did the score drop from +40 to +35 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +25.2 on 1 Oct, then rose to +49.5 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $204.22 to $207.10. It’s at +35.4 now.+23.4 from volume and +11.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 20:07 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our CVX record what it is? What’s the $210 wall?