DE

Deere & Co

$652.58 · +0.12% vs $651.79 close · scored 11:29 · stale

Decision brief

BULLISH · 55/100

What changed

The read is broadly unchanged.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 55/100

For the read

options volume favours calls · signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

No material contradiction isolated.

The read

Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+19.1 composite┆ +19.1 yesterday (+0.0)+16.2 vs a week ago

Evidence

55 / 100 · top 50% today

1,892 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.87

hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499

Why it’s +19

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

+11.9 pts

1,127 calls · 59.6%765 puts

bias +19.1 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

No open interest stored for today’s chain.

Equals

+19.1

100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add +7.3. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −3.75% · tape −12.2 · corr 0.27

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.75% while the tape has faded 12.2 points. They agree.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 55 (50th pct) · quality 81 · 1,892 contracts

pass

Stable

0.87 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0

against

This kind of read hasn’t paid

mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499

note

No reliable lead

enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits high relative to price

against

Our record on DE is poor

27% hit rate on 707 closed calls · payoff 0.80×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$675

$672.5

$670

$667.5

$665

$662.5

$660

$657.5

$655

$652.5

$650

$647.5

$645

$642.5

$640

$637.5

$635

$632.5

$630

Spot $652.58 highlighted. The $500 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on DE

Proof

27%

hit rate · 707 closed

0.80×

payoff

−0.01%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$652.58 → $652.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$652.58 → $652.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$652.58 → $652.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$652.58 → $652.58

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 361 of these 707 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

−0.87%Q4 ’25

+14.71%Q1 ’26

+11.53%Q2 ’26

+5.38%Q3 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report 20 Aug BMO P/E 37.61 · fwd 31.93Beta 0.893 52w $433.00–$721.22IV rank —