DLTR Dollar Tree Inc
$117.64 · −0.83% vs $118.62 close · scored 15:48 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 67/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+18.2 composite┆ +17.3 yesterday (+1.0) +4.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
2,104 contracts · quality 86 · stability 0.84
hasn’t paid −1.04% · n=9,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+10.7 pts
1,234 calls · 58.7% 870 puts
bias +17.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+7.5 pts
5,098 call OI · 59.9% 3,416 put OI
bias +19.8 × 0.38
Equals
+18.2
59% of the score comes from today’s volume, 41% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.37% · tape −11.2 · corr -0.20
▼ low −17.8 ◆ −57.8 in a day ● peak +59 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $133 $112 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.37% while the tape has faded 11.2 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 86 · 2,104 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.04% avg, n=9,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led DLTR’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.27, n=43)
against Our record on DLTR is poor 27% hit rate on 396 closed calls · payoff 2.26×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $117.64 highlighted. The $125 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,227). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on DLTR Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$117.64 → $117.64
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$118.48 → $117.64
−0.71% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$118.62 → $117.64
−0.83% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$118.62 → $117.64
−0.83% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 176 of these 396 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 13.27 · fwd 14.57 Beta 0.675
52w $84.71–$142.40 IV rank —
Ask about DLTR answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +14 to +18 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.8 on 3 Oct, then rose to +18.0 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $111.82 to $111.82. It’s at +18.2 now.+10.7 from volume and +7.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our DLTR record what it is? What’s the $125 wall?
What our data projects
+0.00 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#302 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $125 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Dollar Tree Inc · Retail
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+18.2 ┆ +17.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.04% · n=9,387
Why it’s +18
+10.7 volume · 59% calls+7.5 OI · 60% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −57.8 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $133 $112 Price −4.37%, tape −11.2 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 86 · 2,104 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.04% avg, n=9,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led DLTR’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.27, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+10.7 pts
1,234 calls · 870 puts · bias +17.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+7.5 pts
5,098 call OI · 3,416 put OI · bias +19.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.37% · tape −11.2 · corr -0.20
▼ low −17.8 ◆ −57.8 in a day ● peak +59 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $133 $112 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.37% while the tape has faded 11.2 points. They agree.
27% hit rate · 396 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$117.64 → $117.64
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$118.48 → $117.64
−0.71% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$118.62 → $117.64
−0.83% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$118.62 → $117.64
−0.83% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $125 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about DLTR
Why did the score rise from +14 to +18 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.8 on 3 Oct, then rose to +18.0 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $111.82 to $111.82. It’s at +18.2 now.+10.7 from volume and +7.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our DLTR record what it is? What’s the $125 wall?