DOV Dover Corp
$188.96 · −0.38% vs $189.69 close · scored 12:22 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 61/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 20.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.0 composite┆ +15.1 yesterday (+20.0) +52.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 35% today
458 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.72
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+19.5 pts
301 calls · 65.7% 157 puts
bias +31.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.5 pts
2,498 call OI · 70.4% 1,049 put OI
bias +40.9 × 0.38
Equals
+35.0
56% of the score comes from today’s volume, 44% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.70% · tape −35.5 · corr 0.15
● peak +75 ◆ −91.2 in a day ▼ low −17.3 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $192 $187 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.70% while the tape has faded 35.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 80 · 458 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
against Our record on DOV is poor 21% hit rate on 358 closed calls · payoff 0.60×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $188.96 highlighted. The $190 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 978). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$188.96 → $188.96
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$189.69 → $189.69
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$190.48 → $190.48
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$188.06 → $188.06
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 192 of these 358 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 22.51 · fwd 16.39 Beta 1.119
52w $158.97–$237.54 IV rank —
Ask about DOV answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −17 to +35 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −17.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to +69.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $188.06 to $190.48. It’s at +35.0 now.+19.5 from volume and +15.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our DOV record what it is? What’s the $190 wall?
What our data projects
−0.20 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#399 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $190 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Dover Corp · Machinery
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.0 ┆ +15.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +35
+19.5 volume · 66% calls+15.5 OI · 70% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −91.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $192 $187 Price −1.70%, tape −35.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 80 · 458 contracts
note Jumpy 0.72 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+19.5 pts
301 calls · 157 puts · bias +31.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.5 pts
2,498 call OI · 1,049 put OI · bias +40.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.70% · tape −35.5 · corr 0.15
● peak +75 ◆ −91.2 in a day ▼ low −17.3 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $192 $187 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.70% while the tape has faded 35.5 points. They agree.
21% hit rate · 358 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$188.96 → $188.96
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$189.69 → $189.69
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$190.48 → $190.48
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$188.06 → $188.06
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $190 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about DOV
Why did the score rise from −17 to +35 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −17.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to +69.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $188.06 to $190.48. It’s at +35.0 now.+19.5 from volume and +15.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ITW Why is our DOV record what it is? What’s the $190 wall?