DOW Dow Inc
$28.59 · +2.22% vs $27.97 close · scored 12:22 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 66/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+46.2 composite+4.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
5,107 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+29.8 pts
3,782 calls · 74.1% 1,325 puts
bias +48.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+16.3 pts
30,124 call OI · 71.5% 12,009 put OI
bias +43.0 × 0.38
Equals
+46.2
65% of the score comes from today’s volume, 35% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.41% · tape +24.5 · corr -0.62
● peak +55 ◆ −62.7 in a day ▼ low −54.4 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $31 $28 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.41% while the tape has firmed 24.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 79 · 5,107 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on DOW is poor 13% hit rate on 369 closed calls · payoff 0.37×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $28.59 highlighted. The $30 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 8,135). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$28.59 → $28.59
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$27.97 → $27.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$28.06 → $28.06
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$27.66 → $27.66
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 151 of these 369 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E — · fwd 15.03 Beta 0.443
52w $20.65–$42.74 IV rank —
Ask about DOW answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +42 to +46 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +40.1 on 8 Oct, then rose to +46.2 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $27.97 to $27.97. It’s at +46.2 now.+29.8 from volume and +16.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our DOW record what it is? What’s the $30 wall?
What our data projects
−0.32 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#495 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $30 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Dow Inc · Chemicals
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+46.2 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +46
+29.8 volume · 74% calls+16.3 OI · 71% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −62.7 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $31 $28 Price −5.41%, tape +24.5 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 79 · 5,107 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+29.8 pts
3,782 calls · 1,325 puts · bias +48.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+16.3 pts
30,124 call OI · 12,009 put OI · bias +43.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.41% · tape +24.5 · corr -0.62
● peak +55 ◆ −62.7 in a day ▼ low −54.4 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $31 $28 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.41% while the tape has firmed 24.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
13% hit rate · 369 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$28.59 → $28.59
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$27.97 → $27.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$28.06 → $28.06
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$27.66 → $27.66
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $30 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about DOW
Why did the score rise from +42 to +46 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +40.1 on 8 Oct, then rose to +46.2 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $27.97 to $27.97. It’s at +46.2 now.+29.8 from volume and +16.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our DOW record what it is? What’s the $30 wall?