EFSC EFSC
$58.59 · scored 06:07 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 30/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 30/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Mildly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.8 composite
Evidence
30 / 100 · top 96% today
10 contracts · quality 39 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −5.80% · n=1,610
What traded today · weight 62%
−12.4 pts
4 calls · 40.0% 6 puts
bias −20.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+29.2 pts
23 call OI · 88.5% 3 put OI
bias +76.9 × 0.38
Equals
+16.8
30% of the score comes from today’s volume, 70% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring EFSC today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 30 (4th pct) · quality 39 · 10 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −5.80% avg, n=1,610
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on EFSC
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $58.59 highlighted. The $70 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 21). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on EFSC Proof 12 Oct · 4h
$58.59 → $58.59
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
EFSC
Mildly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.8 evidence
hasn’t paid −5.80% · n=1,610
Why it’s +17
−12.4 volume · 40% calls+29.2 OI · 88% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 30 (4th pct) · quality 39 · 10 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −5.80% avg, n=1,610
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on EFSC
What traded today · 62%
−12.4 pts
4 calls · 6 puts · bias −20.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+29.2 pts
23 call OI · 3 put OI · bias +76.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
12 Oct · 4h
$58.59 → $58.59
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about EFSC
Not enough tape history on EFSC for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our EFSC record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?