ES Eversource Energy
$64.50 · +0.00% vs $64.50 close · scored 09:34 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 62/100
What changed
Composite weakened 45.8 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+26.2 composite┆ +72.0 yesterday (−45.8) −45.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 32% today
282 contracts · quality 69 · stability 0.78
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
What traded today · weight 62%
+5.7 pts
154 calls · 54.6% 128 puts
bias +9.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+20.5 pts
5,992 call OI · 76.9% 1,797 put OI
bias +53.9 × 0.38
Equals
+26.2
22% of the score comes from today’s volume, 78% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −9.75% · tape −8.7 · corr 0.02
● peak +72 ▼ low +26.2 ◆ −45.8 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $65 $63 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 9.75% while the tape has faded 8.7 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 69 · 282 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → +31.94% avg, n=11,250
pass Tape has led price tape has led ES’s price by 3 days (r=-0.18, n=46)
against Our record on ES is poor 35% hit rate on 350 closed calls · payoff 1.75×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $64.50. The $70 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,130).
4 Oct · 4h
$64.50 → $64.50
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$63.87 → $63.87
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$64.31 → $64.31
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$64.31 → $64.31
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 187 of these 350 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 16.76 · fwd 13.69 Beta 0.680
52w $62.72–$76.57 IV rank —
Ask about ES answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +72 to +26 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +72.0 on 3 Oct, then fell to +26.2 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $63.87 to $63.87. It’s at +26.2 now.+5.7 from volume and +20.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 09:34 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our ES record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?
What our data projects
−0.40 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#538 of 635. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Eversource Energy · Utilities
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+26.2 ┆ +72.0 yday evidence
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
Why it’s +26
+5.7 volume · 55% calls+20.5 OI · 77% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −45.8 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $65 $63 Price −9.75%, tape −8.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 69 · 282 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against Our record on ES is poor 35% hit rate on 350 closed calls · payoff 1.75×
What traded today · 62%
+5.7 pts
154 calls · 128 puts · bias +9.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+20.5 pts
5,992 call OI · 1,797 put OI · bias +53.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −9.75% · tape −8.7 · corr 0.02
● peak +72 ▼ low +26.2 ◆ −45.8 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $65 $63 Over 30 days, price has fallen 9.75% while the tape has faded 8.7 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
35% hit rate · 350 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$64.50 → $64.50
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$63.87 → $63.87
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$64.31 → $64.31
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$64.31 → $64.31
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ES
Why did the score drop from +72 to +26 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +72.0 on 3 Oct, then fell to +26.2 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $63.87 to $63.87. It’s at +26.2 now.+5.7 from volume and +20.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 09:34 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our ES record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?