ESTC Elastic NV
$98.95 · +4.26% vs $94.91 close · scored 13:22 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 63/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 63/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+74.8 composite+30.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
63 / 100 · top 28% today
1,854 contracts · quality 55 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.04% · n=83,764
What traded today · weight 62%
+59.7 pts
1,820 calls · 98.2% 34 puts
bias +96.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.1 pts
4,980 call OI · 69.8% 2,153 put OI
bias +39.6 × 0.38
Equals
+74.8
80% of the score comes from today’s volume, 20% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +10.91% · tape +12.5 · corr -0.26
▼ low +10.0 ◆ −54.4 in a day ● peak +75 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-09 10-11 10-12 $99 $88 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 10.91% while the tape has firmed 12.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (72th pct) · quality 55 · 1,854 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.04% avg, n=83,764
pass Tape has led price tape has led ESTC’s price by 1 day (r=0.27, n=44)
against Our record on ESTC is poor 16% hit rate on 346 closed calls · payoff 0.71×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $98.95 highlighted. The $110 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,854). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on ESTC Proof 12 Oct · 4h
$98.95 → $98.95
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$93.94 → $93.94
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$92.31 → $92.31
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$92.04 → $92.04
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 152 of these 346 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 26.64 · fwd 28.25 Beta 0.989
52w $42.05–$108.00 IV rank —
Ask about ESTC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +45 to +75 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +44.8 on 11 Oct, then rose to +74.8 on 12 Oct as the price moved from $94.91 to $98.95. It’s at +74.8 now.+59.7 from volume and +15.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 13:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our ESTC record what it is? What’s the $110 wall?
What our data projects
−0.21 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#569 of 799 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $110 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Elastic NV · Technology
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+74.8 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.04% · n=83,764
Why it’s +75
+59.7 volume · 98% calls+15.1 OI · 70% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −54.4 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-09 10-11 10-12 $99 $88 Price +10.91%, tape +12.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (72th pct) · quality 55 · 1,854 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.04% avg, n=83,764
against Our record on ESTC is poor 16% hit rate on 346 closed calls · payoff 0.71×
What traded today · 62%
+59.7 pts
1,820 calls · 34 puts · bias +96.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.1 pts
4,980 call OI · 2,153 put OI · bias +39.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +10.91% · tape +12.5 · corr -0.26
▼ low +10.0 ◆ −54.4 in a day ● peak +75 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-09 10-11 10-12 $99 $88 Over 30 days, price has risen 10.91% while the tape has firmed 12.5 points. They agree.
16% hit rate · 346 closed
12 Oct · 4h
$98.95 → $98.95
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$93.94 → $93.94
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$92.31 → $92.31
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$92.04 → $92.04
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $110 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ESTC
Why did the score rise from +45 to +75 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +44.8 on 11 Oct, then rose to +74.8 on 12 Oct as the price moved from $94.91 to $98.95. It’s at +74.8 now.+59.7 from volume and +15.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 13:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our ESTC record what it is? What’s the $110 wall?