EXR Extra Space Storage Inc
$133.12 · +0.00% vs $133.12 close · scored 14:31 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 42/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 42/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+41.8 composite+19.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
42 / 100 · top 77% today
275 contracts · quality 75 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+46.7 pts
241 calls · 87.6% 34 puts
bias +75.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−4.8 pts
3,746 call OI · 43.6% 4,837 put OI
bias −12.7 × 0.38
Equals
+41.8
91% of the score comes from today’s volume, 9% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.34% · tape +20.4 · corr 0.06
▼ low −54.7 ● peak +52 ◆ +86.2 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $141 $132 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.34% while the tape has firmed 20.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 42 (23th pct) · quality 75 · 275 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led EXR’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.44, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on EXR is mixed 39% hit rate on 379 closed calls · payoff 0.92×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $133.12 highlighted. The $150 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,036).
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 204 of these 379 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 29.39 · fwd 28.41 Beta 1.119
52w $125.71–$158.88 IV rank —
Ask about EXR answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +35 to +42 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +8.6 on 8 Oct, then rose to +41.8 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $133.25 to $133.12. It’s at +41.8 now.+46.7 from volume and −4.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:31 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our EXR record what it is? What’s the $150 wall?
What our data projects
−0.11 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#346 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $150 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Extra Space Storage Inc · Real Estate
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+41.8 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +42
+46.7 volume · 88% calls−4.8 OI · 44% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +86.2 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $141 $132 Price −4.34%, tape +20.4 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 42 (23th pct) · quality 75 · 275 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led EXR’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.44, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+46.7 pts
241 calls · 34 puts · bias +75.3
What’s on the books · 38%
−4.8 pts
3,746 call OI · 4,837 put OI · bias −12.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.34% · tape +20.4 · corr 0.06
▼ low −54.7 ● peak +52 ◆ +86.2 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $141 $132 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.34% while the tape has firmed 20.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
39% hit rate · 379 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$133.12 → $133.12
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $150 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about EXR
Why did the score rise from +35 to +42 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +8.6 on 8 Oct, then rose to +41.8 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $133.25 to $133.12. It’s at +41.8 now.+46.7 from volume and −4.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:31 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our EXR record what it is? What’s the $150 wall?