FE FirstEnergy Corp
$44.85 · +0.00% vs $44.85 close · scored 14:19 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 63/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 63/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+64.5 composite┆ +64.5 yesterday (+0.0) −3.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
63 / 100 · top 30% today
1,107 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.80
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+51.1 pts
1,010 calls · 91.2% 97 puts
bias +82.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.3 pts
14,018 call OI · 67.6% 6,732 put OI
bias +35.1 × 0.38
Equals
+64.5
79% of the score comes from today’s volume, 21% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.05% · tape −1.0 · corr -0.38
● peak +69 ◆ −77.8 in a day ▼ low −42.1 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $47 $43 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.05% while the tape has barely moved (−1.0). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 78 · 1,107 contracts
pass Stable 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led FE’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.20, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on FE is mixed 37% hit rate on 399 closed calls · payoff 2.79×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $44.85 highlighted. The $45 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,053).
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 215 of these 399 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 23.05 · fwd 15.50 Beta 0.393
52w $42.67–$52.34 IV rank —
Ask about FE answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +64.5?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 1.9 points of +64.5 across the last 8 sessions.+51.1 from volume and +13.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:19 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our FE record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?
What our data projects
−0.19 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#396 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
FirstEnergy Corp · Utilities
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+64.5 ┆ +64.5 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +64
+51.1 volume · 91% calls+13.3 OI · 68% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −77.8 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $47 $43 Price −4.05%, tape −1.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 78 · 1,107 contracts
pass Stable 0.80 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led FE’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.20, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+51.1 pts
1,010 calls · 97 puts · bias +82.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.3 pts
14,018 call OI · 6,732 put OI · bias +35.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.05% · tape −1.0 · corr -0.38
● peak +69 ◆ −77.8 in a day ▼ low −42.1 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $47 $43 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.05% while the tape has barely moved (−1.0). They agree.
37% hit rate · 399 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$44.85 → $44.85
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about FE
What is behind today’s +64.5?
The composite has held within 1.9 points of +64.5 across the last 8 sessions.+51.1 from volume and +13.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:19 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our FE record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?