GAP Gap Inc
$23.15 · −0.92% vs $23.36 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 65/100
What changed
Composite weakened 3.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−26.7 composite┆ −23.0 yesterday (−3.8) −77.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
3,966 contracts · quality 86 · stability 0.82
hasn’t paid +0.27% · n=20,898
What traded today · weight 62%
−28.3 pts
1,079 calls · 27.2% 2,887 puts
bias −45.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.5 pts
9,578 call OI · 52.0% 8,839 put OI
bias +4.0 × 0.38
Equals
−26.7
95% of the score comes from today’s volume, 5% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.15% · tape −51.1 · corr -0.15
● peak +72 ▼ low −26.7 ◆ −51.6 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $24 $21 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 4.15% while the tape has faded 51.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 86 · 3,966 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.27% avg, n=20,898
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led GAP’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.32, n=41)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on GAP is mixed 37% hit rate on 372 closed calls · payoff 1.42×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $23.15 highlighted. The $23 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,545). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$23.15 → $23.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$24.09 → $23.15
−3.92% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$23.36 → $23.15
−0.92% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$23.36 → $23.15
−0.92% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 147 of these 372 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report 27 Aug AMC
P/E 6.47 · fwd 8.40 Beta 2.104
52w $18.11–$29.36 IV rank —
Ask about GAP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +56 to −27 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.8 on 8 Oct, then fell to −26.7 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $24.09 to $23.36. It’s at −26.7 now.−28.3 from volume and +1.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our GAP record what it is? What’s the $23 wall?
What our data projects
+0.27 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#144 of 724 · helped by quality, tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $23 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Gap Inc · Retail
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−26.7 ┆ −23.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +0.27% · n=20,898
Why it’s −27
−28.3 volume · 27% calls+1.5 OI · 52% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −51.6 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $24 $21 Price +4.15%, tape −51.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 86 · 3,966 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.27% avg, n=20,898
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led GAP’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.32, n=41)
What traded today · 62%
−28.3 pts
1,079 calls · 2,887 puts · bias −45.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.5 pts
9,578 call OI · 8,839 put OI · bias +4.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.15% · tape −51.1 · corr -0.15
● peak +72 ▼ low −26.7 ◆ −51.6 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $24 $21 Over 30 days, price has risen 4.15% while the tape has faded 51.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
37% hit rate · 372 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$23.15 → $23.15
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$24.09 → $23.15
−3.92% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$23.36 → $23.15
−0.92% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$23.36 → $23.15
−0.92% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $23 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about GAP
Why did the score drop from +56 to −27 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.8 on 8 Oct, then fell to −26.7 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $24.09 to $23.36. It’s at −26.7 now.−28.3 from volume and +1.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 42 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our GAP record what it is? What’s the $23 wall?