GRMN Garmin Ltd
$268.75 · +0.12% vs $268.44 close · scored 15:45 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 54/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 7.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.9 composite┆ −17.3 yesterday (+7.5) −19.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 52% today
1,682 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.68
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
What traded today · weight 62%
−16.5 pts
617 calls · 36.7% 1,065 puts
bias −26.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.7 pts
5,547 call OI · 58.8% 3,894 put OI
bias +17.5 × 0.38
Equals
−9.9
71% of the score comes from today’s volume, 29% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.63% · tape −24.3 · corr -0.20
● peak +65 ▼ low −32.4 ◆ +89.2 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $297 $268 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.63% while the tape has faded 24.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 81 · 1,682 contracts
note Jumpy 0.68 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 71
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led GRMN’s tape by 3 days (r=0.23, n=50)
against Our record on GRMN is poor 20% hit rate on 661 closed calls · payoff 1.34×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $268.75 highlighted. The $250 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,642). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on GRMN Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$268.75 → $268.75
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 363 of these 661 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 29.09 · fwd 26.24 Beta 0.904
52w $186.67–$314.28 IV rank —
Ask about GRMN answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +10 to −10 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +26.9 on 3 Oct, then fell to −2.6 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $281.16 to $281.16. It’s at −9.9 now.−16.5 from volume and +6.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with GPRO Why is our GRMN record what it is? What’s the $250 wall?
What our data projects
−0.06 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#309 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $250 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Garmin Ltd · Consumer products
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.9 ┆ −17.3 yday evidence
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
Why it’s −10
−16.5 volume · 37% calls+6.7 OI · 59% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +89.2 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $297 $268 Price −2.63%, tape −24.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 81 · 1,682 contracts
note Jumpy 0.68 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 71
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led GRMN’s tape by 3 days (r=0.23, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
−16.5 pts
617 calls · 1,065 puts · bias −26.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.7 pts
5,547 call OI · 3,894 put OI · bias +17.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.63% · tape −24.3 · corr -0.20
● peak +65 ▼ low −32.4 ◆ +89.2 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $297 $268 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.63% while the tape has faded 24.3 points. They agree.
20% hit rate · 661 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$268.75 → $268.75
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$268.44 → $268.75
+0.12% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $250 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about GRMN
Why did the score drop from +10 to −10 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +26.9 on 3 Oct, then fell to −2.6 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $281.16 to $281.16. It’s at −9.9 now.−16.5 from volume and +6.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with GPRO Why is our GRMN record what it is? What’s the $250 wall?