HST Host Hotels and Resorts, Inc
$22.65 · +0.49% vs $22.54 close · scored 09:28 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 63/100
What changed
Composite weakened 38.2 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 63/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+9.5 composite┆ +47.7 yesterday (−38.2) +1.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
63 / 100 · top 30% today
604 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.67
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
What traded today · weight 62%
+8.4 pts
343 calls · 56.8% 261 puts
bias +13.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.0 pts
6,149 call OI · 51.4% 5,825 put OI
bias +2.7 × 0.38
Equals
+9.5
89% of the score comes from today’s volume, 11% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.77% · tape +60.5 · corr 0.59
◆ −73.7 in a day ▼ low −63.8 ● peak +80 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $23 $22 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 2.77% while the tape has firmed 60.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 79 · 604 contracts
note Jumpy 0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
pass Tape has led price tape has led HST’s price by 3 days (r=0.22, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on HST is poor 24% hit rate on 411 closed calls · payoff 0.66×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $22.65 highlighted. The $22.28 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,689). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$21.84 → $22.65
+3.71% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.57 → $22.65
+0.35% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 194 of these 411 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 14.84 · fwd 21.54 Beta 1.157
52w $15.61–$25.71 IV rank —
Ask about HST answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +56 to +9 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +8.3 on 3 Oct, then rose to +80.1 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $22.56 to $22.56. It’s at +9.5 now.+8.4 from volume and +1.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 09:28 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our HST record what it is? What’s the $22.28 wall?
What our data projects
−0.77 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#630 of 635 · helped by composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $22.28 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Host Hotels and Resorts, Inc · Real Estate
Neutral, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+9.5 ┆ +47.7 yday evidence
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
Why it’s +9
+8.4 volume · 57% calls+1.0 OI · 51% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −73.7 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $23 $22 Price +2.77%, tape +60.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 79 · 604 contracts
note Jumpy 0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+8.4 pts
343 calls · 261 puts · bias +13.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.0 pts
6,149 call OI · 5,825 put OI · bias +2.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.77% · tape +60.5 · corr 0.59
◆ −73.7 in a day ▼ low −63.8 ● peak +80 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $23 $22 Over 30 days, price has risen 2.77% while the tape has firmed 60.5 points. They agree.
24% hit rate · 411 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$21.84 → $22.65
+3.71% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.57 → $22.65
+0.35% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $22.28 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about HST
Why did the score drop from +56 to +9 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +8.3 on 3 Oct, then rose to +80.1 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $22.56 to $22.56. It’s at +9.5 now.+8.4 from volume and +1.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 09:28 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our HST record what it is? What’s the $22.28 wall?