HST
Host Hotels and Resorts, Inc
$22.65 · +0.49% vs $22.54 close · scored 10:32 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 40/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 38.2 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 40/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced, and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+47.7 composite┆ +9.5 yesterday (+38.2)+39.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
40 / 100 · top 81% today
0 contracts · quality 34 · stability 0.67
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
No call/put volume stored for today, so the score can’t be split.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +2.77% · tape +98.7 · corr 0.64
Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 2.77% while the tape has firmed 98.7 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidenceconfidence 40 (19th pct) · quality 34 · 0 contracts
noteJumpy0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
passThis kind of read has paidstrongly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → +31.94% avg, n=11,250
passTape has led pricetape has led HST’s price by 3 days (r=0.22, n=45)
againstOur record on HST is poor24% hit rate on 411 closed calls · payoff 0.66×
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $22.65 highlighted. The $26.28 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,321). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00%flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00%flat
9 Oct · 4h
$21.84 → $22.65
+3.71%hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.57 → $22.65
+0.35%hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 194 of these 411 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaningNext report —
P/E 14.84 · fwd 21.54Beta 1.157
52w $15.61–$25.71IV rank —
Host Hotels and Resorts, Inc · Real Estate
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced. The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+47.7┆ +9.5 ydayevidence 40
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
14 days · tape bars, price line
Price +2.77%, tape +98.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidence
confidence 40 (19th pct) · quality 34 · 0 contracts
noteJumpy
0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
againstOur record on HST is poor
24% hit rate on 411 closed calls · payoff 0.66×
No call/put volume stored for today.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +2.77% · tape +98.7 · corr 0.64
Over 30 days, price has risen 2.77% while the tape has firmed 98.7 points. They agree.
24% hit rate · 411 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00%flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.65 → $22.65
+0.00%flat
9 Oct · 4h
$21.84 → $22.65
+3.71%hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.57 → $22.65
+0.35%hit
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $26.28 wallprice · above
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about HST
Why did the score drop from +56 to +48 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +8.3 on 3 Oct, then rose to +80.1 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $22.56 to $22.56. It’s at +47.7 now.
tape_history · 46 ptsstock_scores · 10:32method · 62/38