HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc
$1.88 · −4.08% vs $1.96 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 76/100
What changed
Composite weakened 8.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+70.2 composite┆ +78.6 yesterday (−8.4) +30.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 6% today
7,147 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.88
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+42.2 pts
6,007 calls · 84.0% 1,140 puts
bias +68.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+28.0 pts
135,793 call OI · 86.8% 20,596 put OI
bias +73.7 × 0.38
Equals
+70.2
60% of the score comes from today’s volume, 40% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −10.09% · tape +0.1 · corr -0.06
▼ low +27.3 ◆ +44.8 in a day ● peak +79 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $2 $2 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 10.09% while the tape has barely moved (+0.1). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 77 · 7,147 contracts
pass Stable 0.88 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
pass Tape has led price tape has led HTZ’s price by 1 day (r=-0.18, n=50)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on HTZ is poor 30% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 1.62×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $1.88 highlighted. The $2 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 65,473). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
30%
hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$1.88 → $1.88
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 927 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E — Beta 2.242
52w $1.45–$8.18 IV rank —
Ask about HTZ answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +70.2?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +70.2 across the last 8 sessions.+42.2 from volume and +28.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with GRAB Why is our HTZ record what it is? What’s the $2 wall?
What our data projects
+0.44 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#81 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $2 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Hertz Global Holdings Inc · Road & Rail
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+70.2 ┆ +78.6 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +70
+42.2 volume · 84% calls+28.0 OI · 87% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +44.8 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $2 $2 Price −10.09%, tape +0.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 77 · 7,147 contracts
pass Stable 0.88 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+42.2 pts
6,007 calls · 1,140 puts · bias +68.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+28.0 pts
135,793 call OI · 20,596 put OI · bias +73.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −10.09% · tape +0.1 · corr -0.06
▼ low +27.3 ◆ +44.8 in a day ● peak +79 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $2 $2 Over 30 days, price has fallen 10.09% while the tape has barely moved (+0.1). The two are drifting apart.
30% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$1.88 → $1.88
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.96 → $1.88
−4.08% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $2 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about HTZ
What is behind today’s +70.2?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +70.2 across the last 8 sessions.+42.2 from volume and +28.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with GRAB Why is our HTZ record what it is? What’s the $2 wall?