IP International Paper Co
$31.97 · +0.00% vs $31.97 close · scored 05:16 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 48/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 48/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, thinly evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−1.1 composite+19.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
48 / 100 · top 65% today
668 contracts · quality 76 · stability 0.00
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
What traded today · weight 62%
−2.8 pts
319 calls · 47.8% 349 puts
bias −4.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.7 pts
5,942 call OI · 52.2% 5,436 put OI
bias +4.4 × 0.38
Equals
−1.1
62% of the score comes from today’s volume, 38% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −12.39% · tape +19.8 · corr 0.25
● peak +48 ▼ low −39.8 ◆ −48.9 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $35 $32 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 12.39% while the tape has firmed 19.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 48 (35th pct) · quality 76 · 668 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
pass Tape has led price tape has led IP’s price by 3 days (r=0.21, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on IP is poor 29% hit rate on 356 closed calls · payoff 1.10×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $31.97. The $35 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,241). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
3 Oct · 4h
$31.97 → $31.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.74 → $32.74
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.52 → $32.52
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$32.52 → $32.52
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 144 of these 356 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — · fwd 13.93 Beta 0.980
52w $29.26–$50.25 IV rank —
Ask about IP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −40 to −1 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was −20.5 on 2 Oct, then rose to −1.1 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $32.52 to $31.97. It’s at −1.1 now.−2.8 from volume and +1.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 05:16 method · 62/38
Compare with AVY Why is our IP record what it is? What’s the $35 wall?
What our data projects
−0.33 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#500 of 635 · helped by tape composite. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $35 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
International Paper Co · Packaging
Neutral, thinly evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−1.1 evidence
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
Why it’s −1
−2.8 volume · 48% calls+1.7 OI · 52% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −48.9 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $35 $32 Price −12.39%, tape +19.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 48 (35th pct) · quality 76 · 668 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−2.8 pts
319 calls · 349 puts · bias −4.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.7 pts
5,942 call OI · 5,436 put OI · bias +4.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −12.39% · tape +19.8 · corr 0.25
● peak +48 ▼ low −39.8 ◆ −48.9 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $35 $32 Over 30 days, price has fallen 12.39% while the tape has firmed 19.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
29% hit rate · 356 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$31.97 → $31.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.74 → $32.74
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$32.52 → $32.52
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$32.52 → $32.52
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $35 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about IP
Why did the score rise from −40 to −1 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was −20.5 on 2 Oct, then rose to −1.1 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $32.52 to $31.97. It’s at −1.1 now.−2.8 from volume and +1.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 05:16 method · 62/38
Compare with AVY Why is our IP record what it is? What’s the $35 wall?