JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
$332.99 · +0.39% vs $331.70 close · scored 10:31 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 79/100
What changed
Composite weakened 10.6 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 79/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.5 composite┆ +33.1 yesterday (−10.6) −10.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
79 / 100 · top 4% today
21,316 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.84
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+13.1 pts
12,915 calls · 60.6% 8,401 puts
bias +21.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+9.3 pts
81,177 call OI · 62.3% 49,170 put OI
bias +24.6 × 0.38
Equals
+22.5
58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.12% · tape +5.8 · corr -0.77
● peak +34 ▼ low +22.5 ◆ −9.6 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $343 $330 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.12% while the tape has firmed 5.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 79 (96th pct) · quality 90 · 21,316 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led JPM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.22, n=52)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on JPM is poor 13% hit rate on 1455 closed calls · payoff 1.07×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $332.99 highlighted. The $345 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 8,931). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
13%
hit rate · 1455 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$332.92 → $332.99
+0.02% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1106 of these 1455 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 13.68 · fwd 13.57 Beta 1.044
52w $279.10–$366.50 IV rank —
Ask about JPM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +33 to +22 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +32.0 on 9 Oct, then fell to +22.5 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $331.70 to $332.99. It’s at +22.5 now.+13.1 from volume and +9.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our JPM record what it is? What’s the $345 wall?
What our data projects
+0.04 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#251 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $345 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
JPMorgan Chase & Co · Banking
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.5 ┆ +33.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +22
+13.1 volume · 61% calls+9.3 OI · 62% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −9.6 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $343 $330 Price −6.12%, tape +5.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 79 (96th pct) · quality 90 · 21,316 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led JPM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.22, n=52)
What traded today · 62%
+13.1 pts
12,915 calls · 8,401 puts · bias +21.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+9.3 pts
81,177 call OI · 49,170 put OI · bias +24.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.12% · tape +5.8 · corr -0.77
● peak +34 ▼ low +22.5 ◆ −9.6 in a day 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $343 $330 Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.12% while the tape has firmed 5.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
13% hit rate · 1455 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$332.99 → $332.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$332.92 → $332.99
+0.02% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $345 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about JPM
Why did the score drop from +33 to +22 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +32.0 on 9 Oct, then fell to +22.5 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $331.70 to $332.99. It’s at +22.5 now.+13.1 from volume and +9.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our JPM record what it is? What’s the $345 wall?