MA Mastercard Inc
$564.59 · +0.00% vs $564.59 close · scored 08:03 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 56/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 56/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.3 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
56 / 100 · top 47% today
4,477 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.6 pts
2,694 calls · 60.2% 1,783 puts
bias +20.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.3 pts
14,375 call OI · 47.0% 16,231 put OI
bias −6.1 × 0.38
Equals
+10.3
85% of the score comes from today’s volume, 15% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.51% · tape +2.6 · corr -0.30
● peak +38 ◆ +53.2 in a day ▼ low −31.5 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $600 $551 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.51% while the tape has barely moved (+2.6). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 78 · 4,477 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
pass Tape has led price tape has led MA’s price by 3 days (r=-0.24, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MA is poor 30% hit rate on 738 closed calls · payoff 1.18×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $564.59. The $600 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,499). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
2 Oct · 4h
$553.80 → $553.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$551.36 → $551.36
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$554.50 → $554.50
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$547.05 → $547.05
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 360 of these 738 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 29.85 · fwd 25.02 Beta 0.807
52w $464.52–$601.23 IV rank —
Ask about MA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +10.3?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +10.3 across the last 8 sessions.+12.6 from volume and −2.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 08:03 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our MA record what it is? What’s the $600 wall?
What our data projects
−0.25 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#451 of 635 · helped by tape composite. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $600 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Mastercard Inc · Financial Services
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.3 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +10
+12.6 volume · 60% calls−2.3 OI · 47% calls
52 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +53.2 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $600 $551 Price −0.51%, tape +2.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 78 · 4,477 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+12.6 pts
2,694 calls · 1,783 puts · bias +20.3
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.3 pts
14,375 call OI · 16,231 put OI · bias −6.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.51% · tape +2.6 · corr -0.30
● peak +38 ◆ +53.2 in a day ▼ low −31.5 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-09 $600 $551 Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.51% while the tape has barely moved (+2.6). The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
30% hit rate · 738 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$553.80 → $553.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$551.36 → $551.36
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$554.50 → $554.50
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$547.05 → $547.05
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $600 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MA
What is behind today’s +10.3?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +10.3 across the last 8 sessions.+12.6 from volume and −2.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 08:03 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our MA record what it is? What’s the $600 wall?